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An Indochinese Caucus



Asiaweek 
November 5, 1999 

An Indochinese Caucus 

BY ROGER MITTON, BANGKOK 
 
After a conclave in Vientiane, fears of a split 

   A historical footnote may record that the last year of this century 
saw the union of all 10 nations of Southeast Asia -- and their splintering. 
In the distant past, ASEAN members were often embroiled in
hostilities, a tendency tempered since they came together under one house. 
And to keep old antagonisms at bay, the region's leaders have preferred to 
meet bilaterally or in full group summits. Conclaves of three or four nations 
would spook the others, who fear power plays. So when the leaders
of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos met on Oct. 20 in Vientiane for their first 
"unofficial" Indochinese summit, they sparked concern across Southeast 
Asia. Would ASEAN start splitting into subgroups? 

The Indochinese trio, along with Myanmar, had been inducted into the 
association over the past five years. There was talk of a possible schism 
between the older, more economically advanced states and
the newer, less developed ones. The Indochinese nations were also more 
politically repressive than the founding members. "There are diversities -- 
old and new ASEAN, rich and poor, democratic and undemocratic, Buddhist, 
Muslim and Catholic," says Suchit Bunbongkarn of Thailand's Chulalongkorn
University. Such differences are a potential source of instability within
the grouping 

Does the Vientiane conclave threaten ASEAN? Probably not -- just yet.
"Crucial is whether the discussions were inimical to ASEAN's interests,"
 says Bunn Nagara, coordinating chairman of Geopolicy Research, a 
Malaysian think-tank. "If they were not, there is not much of a problem."
According to official accounts, the three prime ministers -- Vietnam's Phan 
Van Khai, Cambodia's Hun Sen and Laos's Sisavath Keobounphanh -- 
focused on "the importance of further increasing various areas of 
cooperation and strengthening the friendship" among their nations. 
Also discussed were a "development triangle" and better transportation links. 

Unmentioned publicly, however, were talks among the three PMs about 
their opposition to outside intervention in East Timor. That puts them at 
 odds with some ASEAN members, notably Thailand, which has committed 
1,500 troops to the former Indonesian province. With East Timor on the agenda
for the full ASEAN summit in Manila later this month, there is concern that
the 
trio might have thrashed out a common front in Vientiane. 

"The 'Indochina conclave' is evidence that a caucus of politically closed
states 
is emerging in ASEAN," says Southeast Asia expert Carl Thayer of the 
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. "They share an interest 
in suppressing any initiatives that would degrade the grouping's longstanding 
principle of non-interference in one another's affairs." Since Thailand, under 
Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan, has been advocating such initiatives, an 
acrimonious showdown may lie ahead. Already, the notion of forming a rival 
subgroup has been mooted in politically more liberal states. Says Bangkokbased
Somchai Homlaor, secretary-general of the Asian Forum for Human Rights 
and Development: "The change in Indonesia may enable it to join hands 
with Thailand and the Philippines to lead ASEAN toward more open and d
emocratic societies." 

If so, another subgroup comprising Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei may 
find itself caught in the middle. That could severely test ASEAN's unity 
-- and affect its clout on the world stage. "The group's prestige will be 
tarnished and its ability to influence policy-making in the U.S. and Europe 
will be degraded," says Thayer. The academic adds that signs of ASEAN 
disarray and political instability would dent confidence among foreign 
investors. Others disagree with that gloomy prognosis. "I don't think 
[the Indochinese] would want to do anything to make their subgroup 
official," says Suchit. "They just want to discuss their common concerns. 
It's too early to conclude that a subgroup is developing in ASEAN." 

Those who fear such a scenario are additionally disturbed by the fact that 
the fledgling caucus is led by Vietnam, ASEAN's new, autocratic powerhouse.
Laos is closely aligned with Hanoi, as is Hun Sen. Explains Lao Mong Hay, 
director of the Khmer Institute of Democracy in Phnom Penh: "Cambodian
rulers, who used to be communists and allies of Vietnam, do not feel
comfortable 
with the old ASEAN members. Theirs is very much a Cold-War foreign policy of
 close friendship with the socialist camp." 

The Vietnamese also have hardlining Myanmar on their side. So they wield 
a big stick -- as was evident last December when they tried to steamroller 
Cambodia's fast-track admission against the wishes of founder members. 
Yet, Bunn Nagara cautions, "Laos and Cambodia would not want to be
dominated by any country, whether it's Vietnam or Thailand. The main 
reason they joined ASEAN was because membership gave them equal
 rights -- without being dependent on any big neighbor." That's the
optimistic view, which prevails for now. But as Lao Mong Hay notes: 
"The memorial to the militant solidarity of the Indochinese countries 
still stands tall in a Phnom Penh park." In time, the latest Vientiane
conclave may also be seen as a memorial. The question is whether it 
would commemorate ASEAN's progress or its partition. 

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