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Subject: Reuters-ANALYSIS-East Asia common market seen decades away 

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ANALYSIS-East Asia common market seen decades away=20
05:38 a.m. Nov 25, 1999 Eastern=20
By Raju Gopalakrishnan=20

MANILA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - A common market which links China, Japan and =
both Koreas to the tiger economies of Southeast Asia is a mouth-watering =
prospect for the region but one which is at least decades away.=20

It won't be easy to overcome the historical divide between China and =
Japan or between North and South Korea, which are still technically at =
war.=20

But it is time the nations of the region began to examine the =
possibility and, given the realities of globalisation, the idea is not =
as unthinkable as it would have been some years ago, political analysts =
said.=20

The first steps toward more regional cooperation are likely to be taken =
this weekend when the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations =
(ASEAN) holds a summit in Manila which will include the leaders of =
Japan, China and South Korea.=20

ASEAN -- which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, =
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- is already =
on track for a free trade area by 2002 and this could be expanded to the =
three northern neighbours, Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon =
said.=20

``I think you will see this number expanding not only to China, South =
Korea and Japan but perhaps in the near future to North Korea. Maybe =
Mongolia might wish to join,'' Siazon told Reuters Television.=20

``I see we will be having first an ASEAN common market, (then) an east =
Asia free trade area, an east Asia common market, an east Asia currency, =
it is just inevitable.''=20

TIMELY IDEA BUT ONLY A TALKING POINT=20

``I am not surprised,'' said Stephen Leong, at the Institute of =
Strategic and International Studies in Kuala Lumpur.=20

``We have a long way to go on this, but nevertheless it is about time =
that they think about this. But I don't see it happening before 2020 at =
least.''=20

Still, some facets can be easily accomplished, analysts said.=20

ASEAN has invited China, Japan and South Korea to its annual summit =
meetings for the past three years and is likely to formalise the process =
this year, providing a good starting point, regional officials have =
said.=20

``For an east Asian grouping to come together, it shouldn't take long,'' =
Leong said. ``Informally they are already talking to each other. All =
they need to do is formalise the meetings, or set up another one and =
come up with a regional name.''=20

More work will be needed to expand the ASEAN free trade area to the =
north, but China's agreement earlier this month to prepare to enter the =
World Trade Organisation has improved prospects, the analysts said.=20

The catalyst, they said, was provided by the 1997/98 financial crisis, =
which threw a spanner in the booming growth in Southeast Asia and forced =
introspection.=20

``The crisis has shown clearly that the regional states have realised =
that they have not been cooperating enough, in trade and finance and so =
on,'' said Leong. ``Despite the domestic problems that they face, the =
realisation that they need to come together (has come about).''=20

PROBLEMS GALORE=20

The barriers to any form of Asian common market are manifold, the =
analysts said, adding that it took a world war and several decades for =
Europe to attain the goal.=20

Territorial disputes abound in the region. Taiwan seems an =
insurmountable problem and North Korea has shown no signs yet of joining =
a global or even a regional community.=20

China and Japan have a territorial dispute and Chinese memories of =
Japan's invasion in the 1930s and 1940s run deep and bitter.=20

Beijing is also extremely suspicious of Japan's military ties to the =
United States, but on the trade and investment front their ties are =
deepening all the time.=20

``Certainly there will be geo-political problems involved,'' said Lee =
Lai To, a political science professor at the National University of =
Singapore. ``They will try to talk about it, but whether they can =
achieve it remains to be seen.''=20

One pointer is the difficulty which the region is faced with in =
resolving claims on the Spratly islands in the South China Sea, a matter =
of dispute between China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and =
Vietnam.=20

A Philippine proposal on a code of conduct to govern the claims ran into =
rough water within ASEAN itself and is unlikely to pass China's =
inspection later this week, officials have said.=20

``When coming to territorial disputes, it is very difficult to solve =
them,'' said Lee. ``It involves emotion, national interests and so =
forth.''=20

But he added: ``It is very, very difficult but when coming to economics, =
there is bound to be some pragmatism despite the historical conflicts. =
It may happen but it will take a very long time.''=20


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><FONT size=3D+1><STRONG>ANALYSIS-East =
Asia common=20
market seen decades away</STRONG></FONT> <BR>05:38 a.m. Nov 25, 1999 =
Eastern=20
<P><STRONG>By Raju Gopalakrishnan</STRONG>=20
<P>MANILA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - A common market which links China, Japan =
and both=20
Koreas to the tiger economies of Southeast Asia is a mouth-watering =
prospect for=20
the region but one which is at least decades away.=20
<P>It won't be easy to overcome the historical divide between China and =
Japan or=20
between North and South Korea, which are still technically at war.=20
<P>But it is time the nations of the region began to examine the =
possibility=20
and, given the realities of globalisation, the idea is not as =
unthinkable as it=20
would have been some years ago, political analysts said.=20
<P>The first steps toward more regional cooperation are likely to be =
taken this=20
weekend when the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations =
(ASEAN) holds=20
a summit in Manila which will include the leaders of Japan, China and =
South=20
Korea.=20
<P>ASEAN -- which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, =
Myanmar,=20
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- is already on track =
for a=20
free trade area by 2002 and this could be expanded to the three northern =

neighbours, Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon said.=20
<P>``I think you will see this number expanding not only to China, South =
Korea=20
and Japan but perhaps in the near future to North Korea. Maybe Mongolia =
might=20
wish to join,'' Siazon told Reuters Television.=20
<P>``I see we will be having first an ASEAN common market, (then) an =
east Asia=20
free trade area, an east Asia common market, an east Asia currency, it =
is just=20
inevitable.''=20
<P>TIMELY IDEA BUT ONLY A TALKING POINT=20
<P>``I am not surprised,'' said Stephen Leong, at the Institute of =
Strategic and=20
International Studies in Kuala Lumpur.=20
<P>``We have a long way to go on this, but nevertheless it is about time =
that=20
they think about this. But I don't see it happening before 2020 at =
least.''=20
<P>Still, some facets can be easily accomplished, analysts said.=20
<P>ASEAN has invited China, Japan and South Korea to its annual summit =
meetings=20
for the past three years and is likely to formalise the process this =
year,=20
providing a good starting point, regional officials have said.=20
<P>``For an east Asian grouping to come together, it shouldn't take =
long,''=20
Leong said. ``Informally they are already talking to each other. All =
they need=20
to do is formalise the meetings, or set up another one and come up with =
a=20
regional name.''=20
<P>More work will be needed to expand the ASEAN free trade area to the =
north,=20
but China's agreement earlier this month to prepare to enter the World =
Trade=20
Organisation has improved prospects, the analysts said.=20
<P>The catalyst, they said, was provided by the 1997/98 financial =
crisis, which=20
threw a spanner in the booming growth in Southeast Asia and forced=20
introspection.=20
<P>``The crisis has shown clearly that the regional states have realised =
that=20
they have not been cooperating enough, in trade and finance and so on,'' =
said=20
Leong. ``Despite the domestic problems that they face, the realisation =
that they=20
need to come together (has come about).''=20
<P><STRONG>PROBLEMS GALORE</STRONG>=20
<P>The barriers to any form of Asian common market are manifold, the =
analysts=20
said, adding that it took a world war and several decades for Europe to =
attain=20
the goal.=20
<P>Territorial disputes abound in the region. Taiwan seems an =
insurmountable=20
problem and North Korea has shown no signs yet of joining a global or =
even a=20
regional community.=20
<P>China and Japan have a territorial dispute and Chinese memories of =
Japan's=20
invasion in the 1930s and 1940s run deep and bitter.=20
<P>Beijing is also extremely suspicious of Japan's military ties to the =
United=20
States, but on the trade and investment front their ties are deepening =
all the=20
time.=20
<P>``Certainly there will be geo-political problems involved,'' said Lee =
Lai To,=20
a political science professor at the National University of Singapore. =
``They=20
will try to talk about it, but whether they can achieve it remains to be =
seen.''=20

<P>One pointer is the difficulty which the region is faced with in =
resolving=20
claims on the Spratly islands in the South China Sea, a matter of =
dispute=20
between China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.=20
<P>A Philippine proposal on a code of conduct to govern the claims ran =
into=20
rough water within ASEAN itself and is unlikely to pass China's =
inspection later=20
this week, officials have said.=20
<P>``When coming to territorial disputes, it is very difficult to solve =
them,''=20
said Lee. ``It involves emotion, national interests and so forth.''=20
<P>But he added: ``It is very, very difficult but when coming to =
economics,=20
there is bound to be some pragmatism despite the historical conflicts. =
It may=20
happen but it will take a very long time.'' =
</P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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