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AFP-Asia still risks famine due to



Subject: AFP-Asia still risks famine due to population explosion: rice expert

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Thursday, December 9 6:02 PM SGT=20
Asia still risks famine due to population explosion: rice expert
MANILA, Dec 9 (AFP) -=20
Asia still faces the prospect of famine as rapid population growth =
overwhelms advances in crop yields, the chief economist of the =
International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) said Thursday.

"The fear of famine in South and Southeast Asia is still very real, and =
endemic poverty persists," Mahaboub Hossain, IRRI economist and deputy =
director-general for research, said in a statement.

"To feed another 500 million new rice consumers each decade for the next =
50 years, the rice plant must be fundamentally reshaped so that it can =
produce more."

Hossain said "the easy gains have been reaped" with the Green =
Revolution, which pushed production up by 116 percent with yields rising =
by 88 percent between 1966 and 1997.

"The new technological breakthroughs that would ensure abundant rice =
supplies for the next decades have yet to be found," and production =
would have to be ramped up with less land, less irrigation water and =
probably less people willing to work the land, he added.

Hossain said technological advances had led to the "stunning drop in the =
real price of rice," in the past three decades, but then "most Asian =
countries are still growing at an astounding 1.5 to 2.8 percent this =
year" with the exception of China, Japan, South Korea and Thailand.

The continent produces and eats more than 90 percent of the world's rice =
production, and demand for rice in the next 25 years will rise 65 =
percent in the Philippines, 51 percent in Bangladesh, 46 percent in =
India, 45 percent in Vietnam, and 38 percent in Indonesia, he said.

Hossain said urbanization should actually dampen the region's rice =
demand, but along with that demand "is expected to escalate in =
poverty-stricken regions of Asia as the poor satisfy their unmet food =
needs."

"More mouths to feed translates into a need for one-third more 'new =
rice' than what is eaten today. The figures are frightening. Farmers =
must consistently produce an extra 6.7 million tonnes of unmilled rice =
every year, without fail" -- just to "maintain current nutrition =
levels."

The expert also cited the "long-term trend" of slackening rice harvests =
since the mid-1980s, which "could spell trouble for Asia."

Hossain also warned that with the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement =
on Tariffs and Trade due to be implemented, cheap rice will flood =
high-cost producers, taking the comparative advantage to poorer =
countries. However these poor countries will have trouble producing =
enough to export.

He said the Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 20 million =
hectares (49.4 million acres) of river valleys in western and southern =
Africa, and an equal space available in South America, could be grown to =
rice.

"Rice prices must increase substantially, however, for this to become =
economical."

He said India's population growth could overtake that country's excess =
capacity in rice.

"Only Myanmar and Cambodia will be able to produce surplus rice to meet =
potential shortages in other Asian countries, but investment costs will =
be steep," Hossain said.

"But this extra rice may not even add much to the world rice market =
because exports from Thailand and Vietnam will most likely decline."

IRRI, based in the town of Los Banos south of Manila, is the world's =
leading international rice research and training center.

It is part of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural =
Research, an association of public and private donor agencies that funds =
16 international research centers.


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><B>Thursday, December 9</B> 6:02 PM SGT =

<H2><FONT size=3D4>Asia still risks famine due to population explosion: =
rice=20
expert</FONT></H2>MANILA, Dec 9 (AFP) -=20
<P>Asia still faces the prospect of famine as rapid population growth =
overwhelms=20
advances in crop yields, the chief economist of the International Rice =
Research=20
Institute (IRRI) said Thursday.</P>
<P>"The fear of famine in South and Southeast Asia is still very real, =
and=20
endemic poverty persists," Mahaboub Hossain, IRRI economist and deputy=20
director-general for research, said in a statement.</P>
<P>"To feed another 500 million new rice consumers each decade for the =
next 50=20
years, the rice plant must be fundamentally reshaped so that it can =
produce=20
more."</P>
<P>Hossain said "the easy gains have been reaped" with the Green =
Revolution,=20
which pushed production up by 116 percent with yields rising by 88 =
percent=20
between 1966 and 1997.</P>
<P>"The new technological breakthroughs that would ensure abundant rice =
supplies=20
for the next decades have yet to be found," and production would have to =
be=20
ramped up with less land, less irrigation water and probably less people =
willing=20
to work the land, he added.</P>
<P>Hossain said technological advances had led to the "stunning drop in =
the real=20
price of rice," in the past three decades, but then "most Asian =
countries are=20
still growing at an astounding 1.5 to 2.8 percent this year" with the =
exception=20
of China, Japan, South Korea and Thailand.</P>
<P>The continent produces and eats more than 90 percent of the world's =
rice=20
production, and demand for rice in the next 25 years will rise 65 =
percent in the=20
Philippines, 51 percent in Bangladesh, 46 percent in India, 45 percent =
in=20
Vietnam, and 38 percent in Indonesia, he said.</P>
<P>Hossain said urbanization should actually dampen the region's rice =
demand,=20
but along with that demand "is expected to escalate in poverty-stricken =
regions=20
of Asia as the poor satisfy their unmet food needs."</P>
<P>"More mouths to feed translates into a need for one-third more 'new =
rice'=20
than what is eaten today. The figures are frightening. Farmers must =
consistently=20
produce an extra 6.7 million tonnes of unmilled rice every year, without =
fail"=20
-- just to "maintain current nutrition levels."</P>
<P>The expert also cited the "long-term trend" of slackening rice =
harvests since=20
the mid-1980s, which "could spell trouble for Asia."</P>
<P>Hossain also warned that with the Uruguay Round of the General =
Agreement on=20
Tariffs and Trade due to be implemented, cheap rice will flood high-cost =

producers, taking the comparative advantage to poorer countries. However =
these=20
poor countries will have trouble producing enough to export.</P>
<P>He said the Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 20 =
million=20
hectares (49.4 million acres) of river valleys in western and southern =
Africa,=20
and an equal space available in South America, could be grown to =
rice.</P>
<P>"Rice prices must increase substantially, however, for this to become =

economical."</P>
<P>He said India's population growth could overtake that country's =
excess=20
capacity in rice.</P>
<P>"Only Myanmar and Cambodia will be able to produce surplus rice to =
meet=20
potential shortages in other Asian countries, but investment costs will =
be=20
steep," Hossain said.</P>
<P>"But this extra rice may not even add much to the world rice market =
because=20
exports from Thailand and Vietnam will most likely decline."</P>
<P>IRRI, based in the town of Los Banos south of Manila, is the world's =
leading=20
international rice research and training center.</P>
<P>It is part of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural =
Research,=20
an association of public and private donor agencies that funds 16 =
international=20
research centers.</P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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