South China Morning Post: Rice Bowl

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Subject: South China Morning Post: Rice Bowl' Nation in Crisis

Dear Friends of Burma,

Burma: The future of our children in Year 2000: Click here:
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Subject:The Burmese people are in dire - and deteriorating - straits, 
according
to the latest economic and social assessment from the World Bank. The report 
is
a subtle, but damning indictment of 37 years of military rule. 

BURMA by WILLIAM BARNES in Bangkok:  
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The Burmese people are in dire - and deteriorating - straits. 
That is the conclusion that jumps out at readers of the World Bank's latest
Economic and Social Assessment of the country. 

The report, which has so far had only limited circulation in its draft form, 
is
partly designed to spread an array of urgent policy suggestions before the
junta. 

It is also a subtle, damning indictment of 37 years of military rule, even if
it claims "remarkable gains" in poverty reduction and human development in,
approximately, the decade to the mid-1990s. 

The condition of a country that was known as the rice bowl of Asia half a
century ago might perhaps be encapsulated in the startling acknowledgement 
that
nearly one in four households - about 13 million people - spends so little 
they
must live below subsistence levels. 

The inevitable correlation is high rates of malnutrition in children: three 
out
of 10 suffer "moderate wasting", while 10 per cent are "severely 
malnourished".


Noting the "high value" placed by Burmese culture on education, the World Bank
then points out that three out of 10 five-year-olds fail to begin infant 
school
and only 40 per cent of the rest finish even primary school. 

The report squarely blames that, and the very poor state of national health, 
on
the relative decline of spending on social services over the past decade in
favour of continued support for a bloated military establishment and on
loss-making state enterprises. 

Poor families who cannot afford to pay fees to schools or for school uniforms
are often doubly penalised when they cannot maintain even a minimal household
income without sending their children out to work. 

Burma's health and education budgets, as a share of nation income, are among
the world's lowest, the report notes. 

Even where the official figures show gains in terms of absolute poverty and
life expectancy after the mid-1970s, Burma's performance has lagged behind 
near
neighbours such as Indonesia and Vietnam. 

The regime did half-open up the economy after 1988, partly in response to
bloodily suppressed mass protests, and that did prompt growth to pick up quite
briskly for several years. 

But that economic pick-up has fallen away sharply in recent years, leaving
behind ugly inflation rates. 

Surveys in Rangoon and Mandalay last year showed that 70 per cent of families
were forced to borrow money at least "a few times" a year, mostly simply to 
buy
food. 

The World Bank argues that because the authorities are so poor at providing
social services and so weak at generating their own revenues, the only real
hope of boosting education and health care is through private spending. 

And, critically, this will mean lifting the level of the countryside, which
generates three-quarters of national GDP and provides 92 per cent of all
employment. 

Yet the regime's present polices depress the contribution of agriculture -
notably through its requirement that much of the rice production be sold to 
the
state at predetermined prices. 

Even in towns where there are few big companies - not many people work in 
firms
with more than 10 employees - small and medium-sized businesses are hamstrung
by a lack of access to credit, crowded out by favoured state enterprises and
subject to vague business regulations. 

The United Nations is earnestly trying to engage the regime - with the World
Bank - by making tentative offers of advice and financial help. 

Given the role of the West, notably the US, in funding the World Bank and 
other
international lenders, it is hard to imagine even modest fresh funding being
available without the regime making some significant political concessions. 

These might include the release of political prisoners - however it chooses to
describe them - and the acceleration of moves towards civilian rule. 

The report admits in a brief section that a description of poverty and human
development would be "incomplete without a discussion of the human rights
problems and civil conflicts that have plagued the country for many years and
impeded its development". 

It highlights two "human rights issues . . . the failure of the regime to
accept the results of a multi-party election held in 1992 and forced labour
practices". 

The reports adds: "Progress in both respects will be the key to progress in
human development in Myanmar [Burma]." 

Many critics of the military will see in those short sentences the key to
unlocking Burma's problems of poverty, schooling and health. 

The regime described the report as "exaggerated". 
   
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