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      Asia Week, JANUARY 14, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 1
      Sending Out Feelers
      Behind the fresh initiatives to woo Yangon

      By ROGER MITTON=20

      Suddenly there is movement. And as with anything involving =
Myanmar, it is as surprising and unexpected as its outcome is =
unpredictable. Several countries have launched or are launching =
initiatives to engage Yangon's military junta. Will the diplomatic =
efforts lead to the regime lightening up? And how did they get started? =
To try to suss that out, it pays to track back a year.=20

      At that time, there was recalcitrance and inflexibility on all =
sides. The junta and the National League for Democracy led by Aung San =
Suu Kyi were as far apart as ever. Internationally, Yangon and the West =
remained pitted against each other in seemingly intractable positions, =
while Yangon's more conciliatory ASEAN colleagues were still preoccupied =
with economic recovery. It was status immobilus. Then an event unrelated =
to the political impasse sparked a reappraisal by many governments which =
led to the present plans.=20

      The event was the February 1999 Interpol conference on battling =
the drug trade. Amazingly, the regime allowed it to be held in Yangon. =
Its anti-narcotics chief, Col. Kyaw Thein, recalls: "Interpol approached =
us to hold this meeting; we did not go to them. We are regarded as the =
major opium-producing country in this region, but we get no assistance =
from outside to fight this problem. We just get all the blame." They got =
even more, when - caught off-guard by Yangon agreeing to host the meet - =
Western nations put political posturing ahead of trying to solve the =
drug scourge and decided to boycott the conference. On the wacky grounds =
that their attendance might give credibility to the regime, the U.S. and =
U.K. wimped out - and stiff-armed other European states to do the same =
(much to Interpol's chagrin). But ASEAN members and 23 other countries =
did attend. Notes one expatriate professional in Yangon: "The way this =
was reported in Europe and America was nasty and dishonest, saying only =
'minor nations' attended. Does that mean Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, =
Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, China are minor nations?" It was a =
seminal moment, for the nations who broke ranks with the fatuous =
Western-inspired boycott are now among those at the forefront of the new =
initiatives.=20

      First, in May, the Swiss-based International Committee of the Red =
Cross began to visit prisons and other correctional facilities in =
Myanmar. Suu Kyi was unhappy about the move, saying it might be =
exploited by the regime, but she reserved judgment to see whether repeat =
visits would be allowed. They have been. Indeed, the ICRC has, in its =
own taciturn manner, been almost ecstatic about the access it has been =
given. European envoys say conditions for prisoners, including visiting =
rights, have improved and are even better than those in some ASEAN =
neighbors like Vietnam and Laos.=20

      Next came moves by Australia. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer =
said "a more creative approach" to Myanmar was needed and revealed that =
his country's human-rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti, would travel to =
Yangon. Other visits to Yangon took place - a fact-finding European =
Union troika in July, followed by South Korean officials, and then U.N. =
representative Alvaro de Soto arriving in October for his fifth attempt =
to break the political stalemate. Again, he got nowhere - with not only =
the junta but also with Suu Kyi, who found him too soft on the military. =


      De Soto's approach had been akin to the so-called =
"carrot-and-stick" line proposed by a group of nations that met at =
Chilston Park in southeast England in late 1998. There, the Yangon =
regime was reportedly offered up to $1 billion under a plan linked to =
the World Bank and U.N. - if it would make political concessions. Though =
it desperately needed money, the regime declined. Foreign Minister Win =
Aung told Asiaweek: "This is like offering a banana to a monkey and =
asking it to dance. We are not monkeys. We won't dance."=20

      Realizing that this Western-inspired tactic was going nowhere, the =
Japanese and South Koreans explored other possibilities. Having welcomed =
the ICRC initiative, and applauded Australia's moves, they now sought =
their own "creative approaches" to Myanmar. At November's ASEAN Informal =
Summit in Manila, Japanese PM Obuchi Keizo held a landmark meeting with =
junta leader Gen. Than Shwe and other key figures. Three hours later, =
Than Shwe and his entourage met with South Korean President Kim Dae =
Jung. Both encounters heralded future developments.=20

      The first came two days after the Manila summit when former =
Japanese PM Hashimoto Ryutaro visited Yangon. He held talks with Than =
Shwe and other leaders and was unexpectedly treated to a dinner by the =
Myanmar leadership. Next day, his group visited hospitals, the port, =
high schools and the University of Yangon - which they were surprised to =
see appeared open. Hashimoto made four points to the generals. First, =
they should use the police not the military to maintain order. Second, =
they should fully reopen all the universities, closed three years ago =
after student protests. (The regime says it will reopen all the =
University of Yangon's undergrad schools early this year.) Third, =
Hashimoto told Than Shwe the regime should quicken moves to a market =
economy, especially in promoting more privatization. He urged them to =
consider employing more foreigners as consultants, including Japanese =
technical experts. Lastly, he said the generals should not push Suu Kyi =
into a corner so that she becomes the heroine of a tragedy. Instead, =
they should keep a working relationship with her. Junta leaders listened =
to Hashimoto's proposals, appreciating the non-threatening way in which =
they were made. They told him they needed help in education, medical =
facilities, power supply and agriculture. Hashimoto said he would relay =
the message to Tokyo.=20

      Aware of the Japanese initiatives, Suu Kyi cautioned in her New =
Year message: "As the richest Asian country and as a democracy Japan has =
a duty to try to promote human rights and democracy in other parts of =
Asia." Notably in Myanmar, she inferred, but left unstated.=20

      Suu Kyi has a point. When dealing with Japan, the regime is =
clearly fishing for quid pro quo benefits of an upfront financial =
nature, while moves toward multiparty democracy are a secondary =
consideration. Says one professional familiar with the regime: "If the =
Japanese offer something new or undertake further debt forgiveness or =
grant something, then I would expect movement in the various =
Japanese-led projects. Perhaps the regime has learned lessons from North =
Korea - incremental progress for favors."=20

      Together with the Japanese, Australian and ICRC actions, there is =
also movement on other fronts. From Jan. 10 to 15, Obuchi will visit =
Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, and his Myanmar initiatives will be on the =
agenda. In March the Koreans will host a so-called "Chilston-2" meeting =
in Seoul. Participants will try to build on the current momentum to =
bring Yangon in from the cold. South Korean Foreign Minister Hong Soon =
Young told Asiaweek: "One way is to isolate, antagonize and penalize. =
Another is to recognize, negotiate and eventually engage. You have to be =
tough when you say something to the Myanmar regime, but that does not =
mean pressuring them, because that verges on interference in their =
domestic affairs."=20

      Even among diehard anti-regime Western nations, there is a growing =
receptivity to new approaches. Recently, the envoys of several European =
and North American nations privately conceded that sanctions and =
ostracism are not working. But, given well-funded and efficient pro-Suu =
Kyi lobbies back home, they cannot risk publicly recommending policy =
changes. An official familiar with Hashimoto's visit says: "A more =
productive approach would be to promote economic reform, assist the =
Burmese to fight AIDS and drugs, and help them raise the living =
standards of the people. It would be the best way to bring democracy to =
Myanmar." The realization itself is a move forward, since in all prior =
discussions the welfare of the people has appeared to get the least =
attention. So that, at least, is progress._=20
    =20


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      <DIV><MAP name=3Dgobbledygook><AREA alt=3DAsiaweek =
coords=3D1,1,96,18=20
        href=3D"/ASIANOW/asiaweek/" shape=3DRECT><AREA alt=3DTime =
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        coords=3D383,1,460,18 href=3D"/ASIANOW/" =
shape=3DRECT></MAP>&nbsp;<FONT=20
      size=3D2>Asia <FONT color=3D#666666 =
face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif><FONT=20
      color=3D#000000>Week, </FONT><STRONG><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0114/index.html";>JA=
NUARY=20
      14, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 1</A></STRONG></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#990000=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=3D#990000 =
face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif=20
      size=3D5>Sending Out Feelers<BR></FONT></STRONG><FONT =
color=3D#666666=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D3><STRONG>Behind the =
fresh=20
      initiatives to woo Yangon</STRONG><BR></FONT><BR><FONT =
color=3D#333333=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D2>By ROGER MITTON =
<BR><BR>Suddenly=20
      there is movement. And as with anything involving Myanmar, it is =
as=20
      surprising and unexpected as its outcome is unpredictable. Several =

      countries have launched or are launching initiatives to engage =
Yangon's=20
      military junta. Will the diplomatic efforts lead to the regime =
lightening=20
      up? And how did they get started? To try to suss that out, it pays =
to=20
      track back a year. <BR></FONT><BR><!--ASIAWEEK FLOATING MORE =
STORIES BOX--><A name=3Dmore></A><!--/ASIAWEEK MORE STORIES BOX--><FONT =
color=3D#333333=20
      face=3Darial,Helvetica,sans-serif size=3D2>At that time, there was =

      recalcitrance and inflexibility on all sides. The junta and the =
National=20
      League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi were as far apart as =
ever.=20
      Internationally, Yangon and the West remained pitted against each =
other in=20
      seemingly intractable positions, while Yangon's more conciliatory =
ASEAN=20
      colleagues were still preoccupied with economic recovery. It was =
status=20
      immobilus. Then an event unrelated to the political impasse =
sparked a=20
      reappraisal by many governments which led to the present plans.=20
      <BR><BR>The event was the February 1999 Interpol conference on =
battling=20
      the drug trade. Amazingly, the regime allowed it to be held in =
Yangon. Its=20
      anti-narcotics chief, Col. Kyaw Thein, recalls: "Interpol =
approached us to=20
      hold this meeting; we did not go to them. We are regarded as the =
major=20
      opium-producing country in this region, but we get no assistance =
from=20
      outside to fight this problem. We just get all the blame." They =
got even=20
      more, when - caught off-guard by Yangon agreeing to host the meet =
-=20
      Western nations put political posturing ahead of trying to solve =
the drug=20
      scourge and decided to boycott the conference. On the wacky =
grounds that=20
      their attendance might give credibility to the regime, the U.S. =
and U.K.=20
      wimped out - and stiff-armed other European states to do the same =
(much to=20
      Interpol's chagrin). But ASEAN members and 23 other countries did =
attend.=20
      Notes one expatriate professional in Yangon: "The way this was =
reported in=20
      Europe and America was nasty and dishonest, saying only 'minor =
nations'=20
      attended. Does that mean Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, =
South=20
      Korea, Switzerland, China are minor nations?" It was a seminal =
moment, for=20
      the nations who broke ranks with the fatuous Western-inspired =
boycott are=20
      now among those at the forefront of the new initiatives. =
<BR><BR>First, in=20
      May, the Swiss-based International Committee of the Red Cross =
began to=20
      visit prisons and other correctional facilities in Myanmar. Suu =
Kyi was=20
      unhappy about the move, saying it might be exploited by the =
regime, but=20
      she reserved judgment to see whether repeat visits would be =
allowed. They=20
      have been. Indeed, the ICRC has, in its own taciturn manner, been =
almost=20
      ecstatic about the access it has been given. European envoys say=20
      conditions for prisoners, including visiting rights, have improved =
and are=20
      even better than those in some ASEAN neighbors like Vietnam and =
Laos.=20
      <BR><BR>Next came moves by Australia. Foreign Minister Alexander =
Downer=20
      said "a more creative approach" to Myanmar was needed and revealed =
that=20
      his country's human-rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti, would =
travel to=20
      Yangon. Other visits to Yangon took place - a fact-finding =
European Union=20
      troika in July, followed by South Korean officials, and then U.N.=20
      representative Alvaro de Soto arriving in October for his fifth =
attempt to=20
      break the political stalemate. Again, he got nowhere - with not =
only the=20
      junta but also with Suu Kyi, who found him too soft on the =
military.=20
      <BR><BR>De Soto's approach had been akin to the so-called=20
      "carrot-and-stick" line proposed by a group of nations that met at =

      Chilston Park in southeast England in late 1998. There, the Yangon =
regime=20
      was reportedly offered up to $1 billion under a plan linked to the =
World=20
      Bank and U.N. - if it would make political concessions. Though it=20
      desperately needed money, the regime declined. Foreign Minister =
Win Aung=20
      told Asiaweek: "This is like offering a banana to a monkey and =
asking it=20
      to dance. We are not monkeys. We won't dance." <BR><BR>Realizing =
that this=20
      Western-inspired tactic was going nowhere, the Japanese and South =
Koreans=20
      explored other possibilities. Having welcomed the ICRC initiative, =
and=20
      applauded Australia's moves, they now sought their own "creative=20
      approaches" to Myanmar. At November's ASEAN Informal Summit in =
Manila,=20
      Japanese PM Obuchi Keizo held a landmark meeting with junta leader =
Gen.=20
      Than Shwe and other key figures. Three hours later, Than Shwe and =
his=20
      entourage met with South Korean President Kim Dae Jung. Both =
encounters=20
      heralded future developments. <BR><BR>The first came two days =
after the=20
      Manila summit when former Japanese PM Hashimoto Ryutaro visited =
Yangon. He=20
      held talks with Than Shwe and other leaders and was unexpectedly =
treated=20
      to a dinner by the Myanmar leadership. Next day, his group visited =

      hospitals, the port, high schools and the University of Yangon - =
which=20
      they were surprised to see appeared open. Hashimoto made four =
points to=20
      the generals. First, they should use the police not the military =
to=20
      maintain order. Second, they should fully reopen all the =
universities,=20
      closed three years ago after student protests. (The regime says it =
will=20
      reopen all the University of Yangon's undergrad schools early this =
year.)=20
      Third, Hashimoto told Than Shwe the regime should quicken moves to =
a=20
      market economy, especially in promoting more privatization. He =
urged them=20
      to consider employing more foreigners as consultants, including =
Japanese=20
      technical experts. Lastly, he said the generals should not push =
Suu Kyi=20
      into a corner so that she becomes the heroine of a tragedy. =
Instead, they=20
      should keep a working relationship with her. Junta leaders =
listened to=20
      Hashimoto's proposals, appreciating the non-threatening way in =
which they=20
      were made. They told him they needed help in education, medical=20
      facilities, power supply and agriculture. Hashimoto said he would =
relay=20
      the message to Tokyo. <BR><BR>Aware of the Japanese initiatives, =
Suu Kyi=20
      cautioned in her New Year message: "As the richest Asian country =
and as a=20
      democracy Japan has a duty to try to promote human rights and =
democracy in=20
      other parts of Asia." Notably in Myanmar, she inferred, but left =
unstated.=20
      <BR><BR>Suu Kyi has a point. When dealing with Japan, the regime =
is=20
      clearly fishing for quid pro quo benefits of an upfront financial =
nature,=20
      while moves toward multiparty democracy are a secondary =
consideration.=20
      Says one professional familiar with the regime: "If the Japanese =
offer=20
      something new or undertake further debt forgiveness or grant =
something,=20
      then I would expect movement in the various Japanese-led projects. =
Perhaps=20
      the regime has learned lessons from North Korea - incremental =
progress for=20
      favors." <BR><BR>Together with the Japanese, Australian and ICRC =
actions,=20
      there is also movement on other fronts. From Jan. 10 to 15, Obuchi =
will=20
      visit Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, and his Myanmar initiatives =
will be on=20
      the agenda. In March the Koreans will host a so-called =
"Chilston-2"=20
      meeting in Seoul. Participants will try to build on the current =
momentum=20
      to bring Yangon in from the cold. South Korean Foreign Minister =
Hong Soon=20
      Young told Asiaweek: "One way is to isolate, antagonize and =
penalize.=20
      Another is to recognize, negotiate and eventually engage. You have =
to be=20
      tough when you say something to the Myanmar regime, but that does =
not mean=20
      pressuring them, because that verges on interference in their =
domestic=20
      affairs." <BR><BR>Even among diehard anti-regime Western nations, =
there is=20
      a growing receptivity to new approaches. Recently, the envoys of =
several=20
      European and North American nations privately conceded that =
sanctions and=20
      ostracism are not working. But, given well-funded and efficient =
pro-Suu=20
      Kyi lobbies back home, they cannot risk publicly recommending =
policy=20
      changes. An official familiar with Hashimoto's visit says: "A more =

      productive approach would be to promote economic reform, assist =
the=20
      Burmese to fight AIDS and drugs, and help them raise the living =
standards=20
      of the people. It would be the best way to bring democracy to =
Myanmar."=20
      The realization itself is a move forward, since in all prior =
discussions=20
      the welfare of the people has appeared to get the least attention. =
So=20
      that, at least, is progress._ <BR=20
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