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Subject: ASIAWEEK Behind the fresh initiatives to woo Yangon

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JANUARY 14, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 1

Sending Out Feelers
Behind the fresh initiatives to woo Yangon

By ROGER MITTON=20

Suddenly there is movement. And as with anything involving Myanmar, it =
is as surprising and unexpected as its outcome is unpredictable. Several =
countries have launched or are launching initiatives to engage Yangon's =
military junta. Will the diplomatic efforts lead to the regime =
lightening up? And how did they get started? To try to suss that out, it =
pays to track back a year.=20

          ALSO IN ASIAWEEK =20
            . Dateline Kandahar
            A reporter's notebook=20

            Myanmar: Sending Out Feelers
            Fresh initiatives bring Yangon in from the cold=20

            Malaysia: Now, the 'Real' Election
            UMNO's leadership stakes take shape=20

            Japan: Sad Way to Start a New Year
            Princess Masako's miscarriage raises succession issue=20



          =20
    =20
At that time, there was recalcitrance and inflexibility on all sides. =
The junta and the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi =
were as far apart as ever. Internationally, Yangon and the West remained =
pitted against each other in seemingly intractable positions, while =
Yangon's more conciliatory ASEAN colleagues were still preoccupied with =
economic recovery. It was status immobilus. Then an event unrelated to =
the political impasse sparked a reappraisal by many governments which =
led to the present plans.=20

The event was the February 1999 Interpol conference on battling the drug =
trade. Amazingly, the regime allowed it to be held in Yangon. Its =
anti-narcotics chief, Col. Kyaw Thein, recalls: "Interpol approached us =
to hold this meeting; we did not go to them. We are regarded as the =
major opium-producing country in this region, but we get no assistance =
from outside to fight this problem. We just get all the blame." They got =
even more, when - caught off-guard by Yangon agreeing to host the meet - =
Western nations put political posturing ahead of trying to solve the =
drug scourge and decided to boycott the conference. On the wacky grounds =
that their attendance might give credibility to the regime, the U.S. and =
U.K. wimped out - and stiff-armed other European states to do the same =
(much to Interpol's chagrin). But ASEAN members and 23 other countries =
did attend. Notes one expatriate professional in Yangon: "The way this =
was reported in Europe and America was nasty and dishonest, saying only =
'minor nations' attended. Does that mean Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, =
Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, China are minor nations?" It was a =
seminal moment, for the nations who broke ranks with the fatuous =
Western-inspired boycott are now among those at the forefront of the new =
initiatives.=20

First, in May, the Swiss-based International Committee of the Red Cross =
began to visit prisons and other correctional facilities in Myanmar. Suu =
Kyi was unhappy about the move, saying it might be exploited by the =
regime, but she reserved judgment to see whether repeat visits would be =
allowed. They have been. Indeed, the ICRC has, in its own taciturn =
manner, been almost ecstatic about the access it has been given. =
European envoys say conditions for prisoners, including visiting rights, =
have improved and are even better than those in some ASEAN neighbors =
like Vietnam and Laos.=20

Next came moves by Australia. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said "a =
more creative approach" to Myanmar was needed and revealed that his =
country's human-rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti, would travel to =
Yangon. Other visits to Yangon took place - a fact-finding European =
Union troika in July, followed by South Korean officials, and then U.N. =
representative Alvaro de Soto arriving in October for his fifth attempt =
to break the political stalemate. Again, he got nowhere - with not only =
the junta but also with Suu Kyi, who found him too soft on the military. =


De Soto's approach had been akin to the so-called "carrot-and-stick" =
line proposed by a group of nations that met at Chilston Park in =
southeast England in late 1998. There, the Yangon regime was reportedly =
offered up to $1 billion under a plan linked to the World Bank and U.N. =
- if it would make political concessions. Though it desperately needed =
money, the regime declined. Foreign Minister Win Aung told Asiaweek: =
"This is like offering a banana to a monkey and asking it to dance. We =
are not monkeys. We won't dance."=20

Realizing that this Western-inspired tactic was going nowhere, the =
Japanese and South Koreans explored other possibilities. Having welcomed =
the ICRC initiative, and applauded Australia's moves, they now sought =
their own "creative approaches" to Myanmar. At November's ASEAN Informal =
Summit in Manila, Japanese PM Obuchi Keizo held a landmark meeting with =
junta leader Gen. Than Shwe and other key figures. Three hours later, =
Than Shwe and his entourage met with South Korean President Kim Dae =
Jung. Both encounters heralded future developments.=20

The first came two days after the Manila summit when former Japanese PM =
Hashimoto Ryutaro visited Yangon. He held talks with Than Shwe and other =
leaders and was unexpectedly treated to a dinner by the Myanmar =
leadership. Next day, his group visited hospitals, the port, high =
schools and the University of Yangon - which they were surprised to see =
appeared open. Hashimoto made four points to the generals. First, they =
should use the police not the military to maintain order. Second, they =
should fully reopen all the universities, closed three years ago after =
student protests. (The regime says it will reopen all the University of =
Yangon's undergrad schools early this year.) Third, Hashimoto told Than =
Shwe the regime should quicken moves to a market economy, especially in =
promoting more privatization. He urged them to consider employing more =
foreigners as consultants, including Japanese technical experts. Lastly, =
he said the generals should not push Suu Kyi into a corner so that she =
becomes the heroine of a tragedy. Instead, they should keep a working =
relationship with her. Junta leaders listened to Hashimoto's proposals, =
appreciating the non-threatening way in which they were made. They told =
him they needed help in education, medical facilities, power supply and =
agriculture. Hashimoto said he would relay the message to Tokyo.=20

Aware of the Japanese initiatives, Suu Kyi cautioned in her New Year =
message: "As the richest Asian country and as a democracy Japan has a =
duty to try to promote human rights and democracy in other parts of =
Asia." Notably in Myanmar, she inferred, but left unstated.=20

Suu Kyi has a point. When dealing with Japan, the regime is clearly =
fishing for quid pro quo benefits of an upfront financial nature, while =
moves toward multiparty democracy are a secondary consideration. Says =
one professional familiar with the regime: "If the Japanese offer =
something new or undertake further debt forgiveness or grant something, =
then I would expect movement in the various Japanese-led projects. =
Perhaps the regime has learned lessons from North Korea - incremental =
progress for favors."=20

Together with the Japanese, Australian and ICRC actions, there is also =
movement on other fronts. From Jan. 10 to 15, Obuchi will visit =
Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, and his Myanmar initiatives will be on the =
agenda. In March the Koreans will host a so-called "Chilston-2" meeting =
in Seoul. Participants will try to build on the current momentum to =
bring Yangon in from the cold. South Korean Foreign Minister Hong Soon =
Young told Asiaweek: "One way is to isolate, antagonize and penalize. =
Another is to recognize, negotiate and eventually engage. You have to be =
tough when you say something to the Myanmar regime, but that does not =
mean pressuring them, because that verges on interference in their =
domestic affairs."=20

Even among diehard anti-regime Western nations, there is a growing =
receptivity to new approaches. Recently, the envoys of several European =
and North American nations privately conceded that sanctions and =
ostracism are not working. But, given well-funded and efficient pro-Suu =
Kyi lobbies back home, they cannot risk publicly recommending policy =
changes. An official familiar with Hashimoto's visit says: "A more =
productive approach would be to promote economic reform, assist the =
Burmese to fight AIDS and drugs, and help them raise the living =
standards of the people. It would be the best way to bring democracy to =
Myanmar." The realization itself is a move forward, since in all prior =
discussions the welfare of the people has appeared to get the least =
attention. So that, at least, is progress._=20



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14, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 1</A></STRONG><BR></FONT><BR><!--LEAD PHOTO =
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face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>Sending Out=20
Feelers</B><BR></FONT><FONT color=3D#666666 =
face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif=20
size=3D3><B>Behind the fresh initiatives to woo =
Yangon</B><BR></FONT><BR><FONT=20
color=3D#333333 face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D2>By ROGER =
MITTON=20
<BR><BR>Suddenly there is movement. And as with anything involving =
Myanmar, it=20
is as surprising and unexpected as its outcome is unpredictable. Several =

countries have launched or are launching initiatives to engage Yangon's =
military=20
junta. Will the diplomatic efforts lead to the regime lightening up? And =
how did=20
they get started? To try to suss that out, it pays to track back a year. =

<BR></FONT><BR><!--ASIAWEEK FLOATING MORE STORIES BOX--><A =
name=3Dmore></A>
<TABLE align=3Dright border=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 cellSpacing=3D0 =
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          <TD><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" =
size=3D2>&#8226;&nbsp;<A=20
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href=3D"http://www.cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0114/nat.kandah=
ar.html"><B>Dateline=20
            Kandahar</B></A><BR>A reporter's notebook <BR><BR><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0114/nat.myanma=
r.html"><B>Myanmar:=20
            Sending Out Feelers</B></A><BR>Fresh initiatives bring =
Yangon in=20
            from the cold <BR><BR><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0114/nat.malays=
ia.html"><B>Malaysia:=20
            Now, the 'Real' Election</B></A><BR>UMNO's leadership stakes =
take=20
            shape <BR><BR><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/2000/0114/nat.japan.=
html"><B>Japan:=20
            Sad Way to Start a New Year</B></A><BR>Princess Masako's =
miscarriage=20
            raises succession issue=20
    =
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STORIES BOX--><FONT=20
color=3D#333333 face=3Darial,Helvetica,sans-serif size=3D2>At that time, =
there was=20
recalcitrance and inflexibility on all sides. The junta and the National =
League=20
for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi were as far apart as ever.=20
Internationally, Yangon and the West remained pitted against each other =
in=20
seemingly intractable positions, while Yangon's more conciliatory ASEAN=20
colleagues were still preoccupied with economic recovery. It was status=20
immobilus. Then an event unrelated to the political impasse sparked a=20
reappraisal by many governments which led to the present plans. =
<BR><BR>The=20
event was the February 1999 Interpol conference on battling the drug =
trade.=20
Amazingly, the regime allowed it to be held in Yangon. Its =
anti-narcotics chief,=20
Col. Kyaw Thein, recalls: "Interpol approached us to hold this meeting; =
we did=20
not go to them. We are regarded as the major opium-producing country in =
this=20
region, but we get no assistance from outside to fight this problem. We =
just get=20
all the blame." They got even more, when - caught off-guard by Yangon =
agreeing=20
to host the meet - Western nations put political posturing ahead of =
trying to=20
solve the drug scourge and decided to boycott the conference. On the =
wacky=20
grounds that their attendance might give credibility to the regime, the =
U.S. and=20
U.K. wimped out - and stiff-armed other European states to do the same =
(much to=20
Interpol's chagrin). But ASEAN members and 23 other countries did =
attend. Notes=20
one expatriate professional in Yangon: "The way this was reported in =
Europe and=20
America was nasty and dishonest, saying only 'minor nations' attended. =
Does that=20
mean Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, =
China are=20
minor nations?" It was a seminal moment, for the nations who broke ranks =
with=20
the fatuous Western-inspired boycott are now among those at the =
forefront of the=20
new initiatives. <BR><BR>First, in May, the Swiss-based International =
Committee=20
of the Red Cross began to visit prisons and other correctional =
facilities in=20
Myanmar. Suu Kyi was unhappy about the move, saying it might be =
exploited by the=20
regime, but she reserved judgment to see whether repeat visits would be =
allowed.=20
They have been. Indeed, the ICRC has, in its own taciturn manner, been =
almost=20
ecstatic about the access it has been given. European envoys say =
conditions for=20
prisoners, including visiting rights, have improved and are even better =
than=20
those in some ASEAN neighbors like Vietnam and Laos. <BR><BR>Next came =
moves by=20
Australia. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said "a more creative =
approach" to=20
Myanmar was needed and revealed that his country's human-rights =
commissioner,=20
Chris Sidoti, would travel to Yangon. Other visits to Yangon took place =
- a=20
fact-finding European Union troika in July, followed by South Korean =
officials,=20
and then U.N. representative Alvaro de Soto arriving in October for his =
fifth=20
attempt to break the political stalemate. Again, he got nowhere - with =
not only=20
the junta but also with Suu Kyi, who found him too soft on the military. =

<BR><BR>De Soto's approach had been akin to the so-called =
"carrot-and-stick"=20
line proposed by a group of nations that met at Chilston Park in =
southeast=20
England in late 1998. There, the Yangon regime was reportedly offered up =
to $1=20
billion under a plan linked to the World Bank and U.N. - if it would =
make=20
political concessions. Though it desperately needed money, the regime =
declined.=20
Foreign Minister Win Aung told Asiaweek: "This is like offering a banana =
to a=20
monkey and asking it to dance. We are not monkeys. We won't dance."=20
<BR><BR>Realizing that this Western-inspired tactic was going nowhere, =
the=20
Japanese and South Koreans explored other possibilities. Having welcomed =
the=20
ICRC initiative, and applauded Australia's moves, they now sought their =
own=20
"creative approaches" to Myanmar. At November's ASEAN Informal Summit in =
Manila,=20
Japanese PM Obuchi Keizo held a landmark meeting with junta leader Gen. =
Than=20
Shwe and other key figures. Three hours later, Than Shwe and his =
entourage met=20
with South Korean President Kim Dae Jung. Both encounters heralded =
future=20
developments. <BR><BR>The first came two days after the Manila summit =
when=20
former Japanese PM Hashimoto Ryutaro visited Yangon. He held talks with =
Than=20
Shwe and other leaders and was unexpectedly treated to a dinner by the =
Myanmar=20
leadership. Next day, his group visited hospitals, the port, high =
schools and=20
the University of Yangon - which they were surprised to see appeared =
open.=20
Hashimoto made four points to the generals. First, they should use the =
police=20
not the military to maintain order. Second, they should fully reopen all =
the=20
universities, closed three years ago after student protests. (The regime =
says it=20
will reopen all the University of Yangon's undergrad schools early this =
year.)=20
Third, Hashimoto told Than Shwe the regime should quicken moves to a =
market=20
economy, especially in promoting more privatization. He urged them to =
consider=20
employing more foreigners as consultants, including Japanese technical =
experts.=20
Lastly, he said the generals should not push Suu Kyi into a corner so =
that she=20
becomes the heroine of a tragedy. Instead, they should keep a working=20
relationship with her. Junta leaders listened to Hashimoto's proposals,=20
appreciating the non-threatening way in which they were made. They told =
him they=20
needed help in education, medical facilities, power supply and =
agriculture.=20
Hashimoto said he would relay the message to Tokyo. <BR><BR>Aware of the =

Japanese initiatives, Suu Kyi cautioned in her New Year message: "As the =
richest=20
Asian country and as a democracy Japan has a duty to try to promote =
human rights=20
and democracy in other parts of Asia." Notably in Myanmar, she inferred, =
but=20
left unstated. <BR><BR>Suu Kyi has a point. When dealing with Japan, the =
regime=20
is clearly fishing for quid pro quo benefits of an upfront financial =
nature,=20
while moves toward multiparty democracy are a secondary consideration. =
Says one=20
professional familiar with the regime: "If the Japanese offer something =
new or=20
undertake further debt forgiveness or grant something, then I would =
expect=20
movement in the various Japanese-led projects. Perhaps the regime has =
learned=20
lessons from North Korea - incremental progress for favors." =
<BR><BR>Together=20
with the Japanese, Australian and ICRC actions, there is also movement =
on other=20
fronts. From Jan. 10 to 15, Obuchi will visit Cambodia, Laos and =
Thailand, and=20
his Myanmar initiatives will be on the agenda. In March the Koreans will =
host a=20
so-called "Chilston-2" meeting in Seoul. Participants will try to build =
on the=20
current momentum to bring Yangon in from the cold. South Korean Foreign =
Minister=20
Hong Soon Young told Asiaweek: "One way is to isolate, antagonize and =
penalize.=20
Another is to recognize, negotiate and eventually engage. You have to be =
tough=20
when you say something to the Myanmar regime, but that does not mean =
pressuring=20
them, because that verges on interference in their domestic affairs."=20
<BR><BR>Even among diehard anti-regime Western nations, there is a =
growing=20
receptivity to new approaches. Recently, the envoys of several European =
and=20
North American nations privately conceded that sanctions and ostracism =
are not=20
working. But, given well-funded and efficient pro-Suu Kyi lobbies back =
home,=20
they cannot risk publicly recommending policy changes. An official =
familiar with=20
Hashimoto's visit says: "A more productive approach would be to promote =
economic=20
reform, assist the Burmese to fight AIDS and drugs, and help them raise =
the=20
living standards of the people. It would be the best way to bring =
democracy to=20
Myanmar." The realization itself is a move forward, since in all prior=20
discussions the welfare of the people has appeared to get the least =
attention.=20
So that, at least, is progress._ <BR=20
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