BURMA The Army Digs in

[koko@xxxxxxx]

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

------=_NextPart_000_005E_01BF5D5F.9EF50FC0
Content-Type: text/plain;
	charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

BURMA
The Army Digs in
Rangoon's neighbours hoped its junta would yield to 'constructive =
engagement.' Instead it's gearing up for more repression.=20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------
By Bertil Lintner in Bangkok
Issue cover-dated September 2, 1999=20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------

Burmese dissidents in exile are predicting that September 9--the =
numerologically significant 9-9-99--will be the day the masses in Burma =
again rise up against the junta. They base their hopes on a similarly =
auspicious date 11 years ago--August 8, 1988--when massive pro-democracy =
demonstrations began in Rangoon and spread across the country, until =
they were brutally crushed by the army a month later.=20
Most political analysts, however, see more tangible signs that precisely =
the opposite will happen: The Burmese opposition has no chance of =
organizing any protests because the rulers in Rangoon have set their =
face against dialogue with their opponents and are tightening their grip =
on the impoverished country. Already, the government has rounded up 120 =
pro-democracy activists all over the country in the run-up to September =
9, according to a statement issued by the underground All-Burma =
Students' Democratic Front.=20

But the most unmistakable sign of the junta's intentions is the =
expansion of the armed forces, especially the powerful =
military-intelligence apparatus. In the late 1980s, before the August 8 =
uprising, Burma's armed forces totalled about 195,000 men. Today, the =
number is 450,000, according to Maung Aung Myoe, a Burmese researcher =
completing his doctoral thesis on Burma's military at the Australian =
National University in Canberra.=20

The army alone now has 422 infantry battalions supported by three =
artillery divisions and one armoured division--more than twice as many =
as 11 years ago. The number of military-intelligence battalions, =
meanwhile, has increased to 33 from 23 in 1988. The =
military-intelligence apparatus also includes nine special departments, =
based in Rangoon, that look after such areas as foreign relations, =
information coordination, counter-terrorism and strategic planning. In =
the past decade, the government has bought vast quantities of military =
hardware--jet fighters, tanks, anti-aircraft guns, artillery pieces, =
naval patrol boats--mainly from China.=20

The build-up of all this military muscle contrasts sharply with the =
belief of many governments and multilateral agencies that conciliation =
and mediation will persuade Burma's generals to negotiate with its =
democrats. The European Union and the United States insist that =
diplomatic and economic pressure will push the generals to the =
negotiating table. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations argues =
that "constructive engagement" with the junta will work better than =
sanctions and condemnation. On an August visit to Rangoon, Australia's =
human-rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti, even proposed that the Burmese =
government set up its own human-rights body, modelled after a commission =
established in Indonesia in 1993 when the Suharto regime was still =
solidly entrenched.=20

Diplomats and Burma-watchers in Southeast Asia dismiss these hopes as =
pious. Rangoon's leaders are military men, says an Asian diplomat based =
in Bangkok. "As far as they are concerned, they have won the battle =
against the democracy movement and they see no reason why they should =
give that up by accepting some kind of compromise with the opposition. =
And if there's a dialogue, it's a dialogue of the deaf, because only the =
opposition, and foreigners, are doing the talking. The generals talk =
only to themselves."=20

The junta has acquired increasingly sophisticated means to maintain its =
grip on power. A vital part of its military-intelligence apparatus is =
the information department, dubbed the "cyber-warfare centre" by =
Burma-watchers. Western intelligence sources say the centre, located in =
the Defence Ministry's compound in Rangoon, is the largest computer =
facility in Burma. According to Desmond Ball, a professor at the ANU and =
an expert on signals intelligence, the centre can intercept all sorts of =
telephone and fax messages as well as e-mail and radio communications.=20

International telecommunications with Burma pass through two satellite =
ground stations in Syriam, a town across the river from Rangoon. Robert =
Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, says: "Perhaps =
two years ago, a new capability was introduced, allowing Burma's =
military intelligence to monitor even satellite phones . . . by using =
Inmarsat and similar direct satellite-telecommunication systems." The =
equipment, intelligence sources say, was supplied by a Singapore-based =
company, which is also providing on-site training. Adds an Asian =
diplomat in Rangoon: "Since Burma has no external enemies, this build-up =
is meant for only one purpose: to make sure that the military remains in =
power and that it would never again have to face the kind of massive, =
popular outburst of anti-government sentiment it did in 1988."=20

Significantly, many of the 33 military-intelligence battalions are =
stationed in towns and cities in the Burmese heartland, the centre of =
opposition to the regime, rather than in the frontier areas, where =
ethnic insurgents were active for many years but now have been largely =
defeated or marginalized. "Moreover, there are informers in every =
neighbourhood, every school compound and every Buddhist monastery in the =
country," says a Western intelligence source. "This makes it almost =
impossible even to organize any kind of political movement, even =
underground cells."=20

Even a collapsing economy is not denting the junta's hard line. =
Contracted foreign investment in Burma has fallen to $29.5 million so =
far this year from $774 million last year, according to a recent report =
from a Western embassy in Rangoon. Inflation is running at 40%, with the =
consumer price index for rice--the key staple--up an annualized 60% in =
February. According to the embassy's report, plans for Burmese gas =
exports to generate foreign exchange are foundering: Burma and Thailand =
can't agree on payment terms for supplies from a giant gas project that =
is being developed off the Burmese coast by Total of France and Unocal =
of the U.S.=20

But the junta has an answer to the collapse of its experiment with =
free-market economics: It's now putting more emphasis on raising =
agricultural output than meeting the concerns of foreign investors, the =
embassy report says. Foreign businessmen say visas for Burma are now =
harder to get.=20

The new focus on agriculture seems to be aimed at boosting paddy output =
and achieving self-sufficiency in rice. The generals seem to believe =
that food security, massive intelligence gathering, intense surveillance =
of the population, intimidation and arrests will enable them to remain =
in power indefinitely. Meanwhile, they pay lip service to outsiders' =
overtures--agreeing to "consider" Australia's proposal for a =
human-rights commission, for example--while wishful thinkers continue to =
look for signs of change.=20




-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------


------=_NextPart_000_005E_01BF5D5F.9EF50FC0
Content-Type: text/html;
	charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>
<CENTER><FONT color=3D#cc0000 face=3DVerdana =
size=3D2><B>BURMA</B></FONT><BR><FONT=20
size=3D6>The Army Digs in</FONT><BR><I>Rangoon's neighbours hoped its =
junta would=20
yield to 'constructive engagement.' Instead it's gearing up for more=20
repression.</I>=20
<HR noShade SIZE=3D2>
<FONT color=3D#cc0000 face=3DHelvetica size=3D1>By Bertil Lintner in=20
Bangkok<BR></FONT><FONT face=3DHelvetica size=3D1>Issue cover-dated =
September 2,=20
1999</FONT>=20
<HR noShade SIZE=3D2>
</CENTER><B><FONT size=3D+3>B</FONT></B>urmese dissidents in exile are =
predicting=20
that September 9--the numerologically significant 9-9-99--will be the =
day the=20
masses in Burma again rise up against the junta. They base their hopes =
on a=20
similarly auspicious date 11 years ago--August 8, 1988--when massive=20
pro-democracy demonstrations began in Rangoon and spread across the =
country,=20
until they were brutally crushed by the army a month later.=20
<P>Most political analysts, however, see more tangible signs that =
precisely the=20
opposite will happen: The Burmese opposition has no chance of organizing =
any=20
protests because the rulers in Rangoon have set their face against =
dialogue with=20
their opponents and are tightening their grip on the impoverished =
country.=20
Already, the government has rounded up 120 pro-democracy activists all =
over the=20
country in the run-up to September 9, according to a statement issued by =
the=20
underground All-Burma Students' Democratic Front.=20
<P>But the most unmistakable sign of the junta's intentions is the =
expansion of=20
the armed forces, especially the powerful military-intelligence =
apparatus. In=20
the late 1980s, before the August 8 uprising, Burma's armed forces =
totalled=20
about 195,000 men. Today, the number is 450,000, according to Maung Aung =
Myoe, a=20
Burmese researcher completing his doctoral thesis on Burma's military at =
the=20
Australian National University in Canberra.=20
<P>The army alone now has 422 infantry battalions supported by three =
artillery=20
divisions and one armoured division--more than twice as many as 11 years =
ago.=20
The number of military-intelligence battalions, meanwhile, has increased =
to 33=20
from 23 in 1988. The military-intelligence apparatus also includes nine =
special=20
departments, based in Rangoon, that look after such areas as foreign =
relations,=20
information coordination, counter-terrorism and strategic planning. In =
the past=20
decade, the government has bought vast quantities of military =
hardware--jet=20
fighters, tanks, anti-aircraft guns, artillery pieces, naval patrol=20
boats--mainly from China.=20
<P>The build-up of all this military muscle contrasts sharply with the =
belief of=20
many governments and multilateral agencies that conciliation and =
mediation will=20
persuade Burma's generals to negotiate with its democrats. The European =
Union=20
and the United States insist that diplomatic and economic pressure will =
push the=20
generals to the negotiating table. The Association of Southeast Asian =
Nations=20
argues that "constructive engagement" with the junta will work better =
than=20
sanctions and condemnation. On an August visit to Rangoon, Australia's=20
human-rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti, even proposed that the Burmese=20
government set up its own human-rights body, modelled after a commission =

established in Indonesia in 1993 when the Suharto regime was still =
solidly=20
entrenched.=20
<P>Diplomats and Burma-watchers in Southeast Asia dismiss these hopes as =
pious.=20
Rangoon's leaders are military men, says an Asian diplomat based in =
Bangkok. "As=20
far as they are concerned, they have won the battle against the =
democracy=20
movement and they see no reason why they should give that up by =
accepting some=20
kind of compromise with the opposition. And if there's a dialogue, it's =
a=20
dialogue of the deaf, because only the opposition, and foreigners, are =
doing the=20
talking. The generals talk only to themselves."=20
<P>The junta has acquired increasingly sophisticated means to maintain =
its grip=20
on power. A vital part of its military-intelligence apparatus is the =
information=20
department, dubbed the "cyber-warfare centre" by Burma-watchers. Western =

intelligence sources say the centre, located in the Defence Ministry's =
compound=20
in Rangoon, is the largest computer facility in Burma. According to =
Desmond=20
Ball, a professor at the ANU and an expert on signals intelligence, the =
centre=20
can intercept all sorts of telephone and fax messages as well as e-mail =
and=20
radio communications.=20
<P>International telecommunications with Burma pass through two =
satellite ground=20
stations in Syriam, a town across the river from Rangoon. Robert =
Karniol,=20
Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, says: "Perhaps two years =
ago, a=20
new capability was introduced, allowing Burma's military intelligence to =
monitor=20
even satellite phones . . . by using Inmarsat and similar direct=20
satellite-telecommunication systems." The equipment, intelligence =
sources say,=20
was supplied by a Singapore-based company, which is also providing =
on-site=20
training. Adds an Asian diplomat in Rangoon: "Since Burma has no =
external=20
enemies, this build-up is meant for only one purpose: to make sure that =
the=20
military remains in power and that it would never again have to face the =
kind of=20
massive, popular outburst of anti-government sentiment it did in 1988."=20
<P>Significantly, many of the 33 military-intelligence battalions are =
stationed=20
in towns and cities in the Burmese heartland, the centre of opposition =
to the=20
regime, rather than in the frontier areas, where ethnic insurgents were =
active=20
for many years but now have been largely defeated or marginalized. =
"Moreover,=20
there are informers in every neighbourhood, every school compound and =
every=20
Buddhist monastery in the country," says a Western intelligence source. =
"This=20
makes it almost impossible even to organize any kind of political =
movement, even=20
underground cells."=20
<P>Even a collapsing economy is not denting the junta's hard line. =
Contracted=20
foreign investment in Burma has fallen to $29.5 million so far this year =
from=20
$774 million last year, according to a recent report from a Western =
embassy in=20
Rangoon. Inflation is running at 40%, with the consumer price index for=20
rice--the key staple--up an annualized 60% in February. According to the =

embassy's report, plans for Burmese gas exports to generate foreign =
exchange are=20
foundering: Burma and Thailand can't agree on payment terms for supplies =
from a=20
giant gas project that is being developed off the Burmese coast by Total =
of=20
France and Unocal of the U.S.=20
<P>But the junta has an answer to the collapse of its experiment with=20
free-market economics: It's now putting more emphasis on raising =
agricultural=20
output than meeting the concerns of foreign investors, the embassy =
report says.=20
Foreign businessmen say visas for Burma are now harder to get.=20
<P>The new focus on agriculture seems to be aimed at boosting paddy =
output and=20
achieving self-sufficiency in rice. The generals seem to believe that =
food=20
security, massive intelligence gathering, intense surveillance of the=20
population, intimidation and arrests will enable them to remain in power =

indefinitely. Meanwhile, they pay lip service to outsiders' =
overtures--agreeing=20
to "consider" Australia's proposal for a human-rights commission, for=20
example--while wishful thinkers continue to look for signs of change.=20
<P><!--BEGIN BOTTOM LINKS -->
<CENTER>
<P>
<HR noShade SIZE=3D2>
</CENTER></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

------=_NextPart_000_005E_01BF5D5F.9EF50FC0--