No cease-fires without smoke and mi

[darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx]

When is a cease-fire not a cease-fire?

About 10 days ago I posted the summary and URL of the "Landmine Monitor"
report on Burma (Myanmar): http://www.igc.org/nonviolence/burmamines/lm2.html

One thing I didn't notice then was the Chart of Ethnic Political 
Organizations with
Armed Wings in Burma, which you have to click on a button to find. An 
interesting
thing about this list of 33 armed groups* in Burma is how many of them have no
cease-fire arrangement with Rangoon. Out of  33,  the chart lists 10 as having
cease-fires**,  21 with no ceasefire, one (the KNPP) as having a broken 
cease-fire
and one (NSCN-Khaplang) is queried. It would be absurd to count the KNPP
among the cease-fire groups, given their recent battles with the SPDC, and
Khaplang's troops were fighting the Burma Army just a few weeks ago. On
the other hand,  the DKBA, while having no cease-fire, is not really in
a state of belligerency with Rangoon.

So that makes 10 armed groups which currently have a cease-fire with
Rangoon to 23 which do not.  These are rather different figures to the
SPDC's 18 cease-fire groups to 1 non cease-fire.

The reason the junta cooks the books here as elsewhere is presumably
because it seeks to present itself as successful in this area, at least.
But unfortunately, even in the military field, where one might have
expected accuracy, the generals' figures must be consigned to the
same smoking heap as their inflated economic growth figures, Khin Nyunt's
"25,000" HIV/AIDS infections" (as contrasted with a conservative estimate of
530,000 by UNAIDS***) and so on.

The number of current cease-fire arrangements the junta has claimed has
given it a fair amount of credit with other countries and international
organisations; but it seems that once more, the claims are  fraudulent.

--------------------------------------

* There are a variety of small self proclaimed armed groups that are 
dysfunctional or not
currently active which are not included. Revolutionary political 
organizations, which do
not maintain an armed wing, are not included. Some of the armed ethnic 
organizations
are primarily involved in the narcotics trade for self-perpetuation rather 
than any real
political activity. Several armed groups are quite small, and work only in 
alliance with
other groups. (chart footnotes)

** Ceasefire: Has verbally negotiated ceasefire agreement with SLORC or SPDC
(no written agreements exist) (chart footnotes)

*** Dr Chris Beyrer of Johns Hopkins University, one of the world's leading 
experts
in the epidemiology of  HIV/AIDS  who has worked for several years in the 
region,
says that  there  must be at least 750,000 HIV cases in Burma, and I have 
heard
estimates of up to 2 million.