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BurmaNet News: January 26, 2001



______________ THE BURMANET NEWS ______________
  An on-line newspaper covering Burma 
 January 26, 2001 Issue # 1720
______________ www.burmanet.org _______________

INSIDE BURMA _______
*DVB: Burma to build air defence systems along border with Thailand 
*Kyemon [SPDC]: [Burma cracks down on use of illegal satellite 
receivers]
*AP: 84 opposition politicians released from prison in Myanmar
*Xinhua: Myanmar In Stage Of Political Evolution- Official Information
*Xinhua: Myanmar Holds Second Women's Conference

REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL _______
*Far Eastern Economic Review: Where Htoo Now?
*The Independent (Bangladesh): Yangon Embassy Says: Date for Joint 
Survey of Dam to Be Finalized 
*AP: US welcomes release of senior Myanmar opposition leader

ECONOMY/BUSINESS _______
*Reinsurance Magazine: Political Risk; Playing with Fire
*The Economist: Good fellers

OPINION/EDITORIALS_______
*USG: State Department reaction to release of U Tin Oo

OTHER______
*PD Burma: Calendar of events with regard to Burma 


__________________ INSIDE BURMA ____________________


Kyemon [SPDC]: [Burma cracks down on use of illegal satellite receivers]


Excerpt from report by Burmese language newspaper Kyemon on 18 January 
2001, translated by BBC SWB.

Yangon [Rangoon] 17 January: The various township communications 
departments have already compiled a list of satellite receivers used 
illegally without licences in the Union of Myanmar [Burma] and are in 
the process of scrutinizing and assessing those illegal satellite dishes 
that should pay licence fees. Those that have illegal satellite 
receivers in their possession should contact in writing to the Director 
General, Directorate of Communications, No. 125 Pansodan Road, Yangon, 
on or before 28 February 2001 by registered post stating the owner's 
name, name of organization, foreigner or citizenship registration card, 
occupation, full mailing address, the location of the satellite dish, 
the particulars of the satellite dish - make, model, serial number, 
size, and the date of installation... 

Those who failed to notify the Director General, Directorate of 
Communications, about the facts in paragraph one relating to the illegal 
use of satellite receivers during the prescribed period will face legal 
action according to existing laws.


___________________________________________________



DVB: Burma to build air defence systems along border with Thailand 


25 January

DVB [Democratic Voice of Burma] has already reported that a Thai F-16 
jet fighter intruded Burmese airspace in Kawthaung District yesterday 
afternoon. DVB correspondent Myint Maung Maung filed this supplementary 
report.

[Myint Maung Maung] Although the heavy artillery units stationed at 
border regions in Mergui and Bokpyin knew immediately about the 
intrusion of the Thai F-16 jet fighter into Burmese airspace, they did 
not have any time to respond. Due to the immediate information provided 
by the units, Kawthaung's seven-mile hill long range artillery unit and 
Zadetgyi naval base artillery unit started to shoot pointlessly. A 
Kawthaung resident told DVB that local residents were concerned when 
they heard the loud artillery fire yesterday afternoon and there were 
many conflicting remarks and comments. The movements of the army and 
naval units could be seen today and security is very tight.

The Burmese side has also unilaterally closed the Kawthaung-Ranong 
official border trade route but some small boats are still seen plying 
the coasts with mutual understanding. In connection with the intruding 
plane, the deputy commander of Coastal Region Military Command, Brig-Gen 
Tin Latt, arrived in Kawthaung yesterday evening and is holding a 
meeting with the regional military officers. It is such an irony that 
the Thai jet fighter intruded Burmese airspace at a time when the SPDC 
[State Peace and Development Council] is planning to build air defence 
systems along the Burma-Thai border with the help of a Chinese Science 
and Technology Group. 

___________________________________________________



AP: 84 opposition politicians released from prison in Myanmar 

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) _ In another sign of improving relations between 
Myanmar's military government and the opposition, authorities released 
from prison 84 members of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's 
National League for Democracy, a senior party official said Friday. 

 The 84, including 38 women, included party members who were arrested in 
April, August and September last year. They were released in small 
groups from Yangon's Insein prison on Thursday, the NLD official told 
The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. 


 The releases came as tensions are showing signs of easing between the 
NLD and the ruling military, following secret talks between the two 
sides over the past four months aimed at breaking a decade-long 
political impasse in this Southeast Asian nation. 
 The NLD reported the release of 20 of the activists on Thursday. The 
rest were freed later in the day. Jubilant party members, including 
those freed, gathered Friday at the NLD headquarters in the Yangon, the 
capital. 

 Suu Kyi, the party leader, remains under virtual house arrest. 

 ``I will continue with my party activities,'' said one of the released 
prisoners, Ma Khine, 32. ``That was my third time in prison and 
hopefully my last.'' 

 The senior NLD leader said most of the 84 were NLD youth members. 
Thirty-one were arrested in April when Suu Kyi was trying to organize 
the party's youth wing in Yangon. Two others were arrested in August, 
after Suu Kyi was engaged in a nine-day standoff with the government, 
blocked by authorities when she tried to travel outside the capital. 

 The other 51 were rounded up early on Sept. 22, when the NLD leader 
attempted to travel to the northern city of Mandalay by train. All the 
detainees from that incident have now been released, according to the 
NLD. 

 The Myanmar government issued no immediate comment on the prison 
releases. 

 Suu Kyi, the 1991 Nobel Prize laureate, and seven other NLD leaders 
were confined to their homes on Sept. 22, but the travel bans on all but 
Suu Kyi and party Chairman Aung Shwe were lifted on Dec. 1. 

 Party vice-chairman Tin Oo, 74, had been detained at a military camp 
but was released Wednesday night. He was still barred from receiving 
visitors Friday. 

 Myo Nyunt, 34, an NLD youth-wing member, said on Friday that he 
strongly believes his release was the result of the first talks between 
Suu Kyi and top generals in the regime in six years. He said he heard 
about them during his prison confinement. 

 ``I am very happy that talks have begun. I am confident that the 
restriction on Daw Suu, U Aung Shwe and U Tin Oo will be lifted very 
soon, hopefully today,'' he said. Daw and U are honorifics. 

 Meanwhile, the humble NLD headquarters was bustling with excited party 
members greeting those released, most of whom said they were not treated 
badly, even though some had lost weight. Ma Khine said they were freed 
unconditionally. 

 Suu Kyi is engaged in a decade-old political deadlock with Myanmar's 
military junta, which crushed a pro-democracy uprising in 1988. 

 In 1990, the generals called a national election that was won by the 
NLD, but the military refused to honor the results and imposed severe 
restrictions on league members. 


 However, following recent talks between the two sides, mediated by U.N. 
special envoy Razali Ismail, a thaw between the opposing sides appears 
to be under way. 

 The state-run media have stopped their usual attacks on Suu Kyi, and 
Western sources in Yangon say the routine harassment of NLD party 
members in the countryside has been called off. 

 The pro-democracy forces also have toned down their antimilitary 
statements. 

 A four-member European Union delegation is expected to meet with Suu 
Kyi and the generals to assess the progress of the reported talks during 
its Jan. 29-31 visit to Myanmar. 
 



___________________________________________________



Xinhua: Myanmar In Stage Of Political Evolution: Official Information


YANGON, January 26 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar's current political situation is 
still in the stage of an evolution from a single party unitary state 
with a centrally-planned economic system to that of a multi-party 
democratic union of autonomous states with a market-oriented economic 
system, said a government-released Information Sheet available here 
Friday. Quoting a news bulletin recently published by the Myanmar 
embassy in London, the Information Sheet said it is evolution rather 
than a rapid transformation simply because "Myanmar is determined to set 
its own priorities and avoid the disruption of social, moral and 
cultural fabrics that characterized the nation and its people for 
centuries." 

It stressed that there need not be a fixed universal formula for 
achievement of democracy, saying that each region of the world, 
inhabited by different people with different beliefs should be allowed 
to develop themselves without being pressured. The Information Sheet 
blamed the United States government of the recent past with arrogantly 
going on to carry out its threat to ban new investments in Myanmar 
unilaterally yielding to pressure from domestic political activists. 

It pointed out that the ban-threat has had little or no effect on a 
country making economic progress by simply opening its borders to 
neighboring countries. The Information Sheet praised itself that Myanmar 
has a remarkable capacity to survive isolation, saying that the strategy 
of exerting pressure for political change through economic sanctions is 
ineffectual and counter-productive. The Information Sheet warned that 
"Sanctions that lead to deprivation of the people's rights to basic 
amenities such as food sufficiency, health care and education etc. can 
easily induce a backlash of the people against the powers that imposed 
such measures."


___________________________________________________



Xinhua: Myanmar Holds Second Women's Conference


YANGON, January 26 (Xinhua) -- The Second Myanmar Women's Conference 
(MWC) began here Thursday to lay down effective action plans for 
national women's development as a follow-up of the First MWC held in 
December 1998. The two-day conference is sponsored by the Myanmar 
National Committee for Women's Affairs (MNCWA). Speaking at the opening 
of the conference, First Secretary of the Myanmar State Peace and 
Development Council Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt stressed the need to 
acquire the advancing technologies in globalization in carrying out the 
tasks, official newspaper The New Light of Myanmar reported Friday. 

He called for paying serious attention to preserving and safeguarding 
the national traits in carrying out the task for acquisition of modern 
technologies. He warned against infiltration of alien culture, 
emphasizing the need to be more serious in nurturing the mass of Myanmar 
women to cherish and preserve their culture and tradition, promote 
cultural heritage, strengthen nationalism and patriotism, and 
safeguarding their originality with national awareness. 

The MNCWA was formed on July 3, 1996. The day of the formation was 
designated as Myanmar Women's Day which is observed every year. The 
MNCWA is reported to have been successfully implementing the Myanmar 
national action plan for advancement of the country's women covered by 
the action plans for women's development of the 1995 Beijing Declaration 
of the Fourth World Women's Conference. 

Meanwhile, Myanmar signed the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms 
of Discrimination Against Women in July 1997 and hosted the Regional 
Consultation on Violence Against Women and Role of Health Sector in 
January 1999. Myanmar's women population accounts for 50.34 percent of 
the country's 50.12 million population, according to official 
statistics.








___________________ REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL___________________
				


Far Eastern Economic Review: Where Htoo Now?

Issue cover-dated February 1, 2001



For the former leaders of the Karen rebel God's Army, life after battle 
could provide a semblance of normality By Bertil Lintner

IT WAS CLEAR they had been well prepared for the event. Johnny and 
Luther Htoo, the legendary Karen twins from Burma with magical powers 
and their own army, had obviously been given a good scrubbing, a haircut 
and crisp new clothes prior to their January 17 date with the world's 
media in Ratchaburi, a town close to the rugged mountains that separate 
Thailand from Burma.  

The word was that Johnny and Luther had ended their violence, and those 
who had been living in fear of the rebels, could breathe a sigh of 
relief. 

The twins, and their so-called God's Army, had been implicated in a 
number of terrorist attacks, including the storming of the Burmese 
embassy in Bangkok in October 1999, and a hospital siege in Ratchaburi 
in January last year when hundreds were held hostage. Now the threat, 
real or imagined, was over. 

The twins, who are said to be only 13 years old, will likely be reunited 
with their parents at a border camp and get a chance to attend school. 
Both are illiterate, though their followers insist they know the Bible 
by heart. So, a happy ending to one of Southeast Asia's most bizarre and 
tragic recent stories? 

No. From the beginning there was more to the stage-managed surrender 
ceremony than met the eye. 

Local aid workers close to the refugee camps maintain that the last 
remaining soldiers of God's Army, including the twins, in fact disbanded 
in October and rejoined the Karen National Union, the main Karen 
movement, which they had broken away from in 1997. 

According to initial reports of the surrender from Thai authorities, the 
twins gave themselves up peacefully after a Thai border patrol stumbled 
upon them. But a later version of events, from the same authorities, had 
it that the twins turned themselves in voluntarily. According to refugee 
workers the border camps were sealed off several weeks prior to the 
breakthrough, with food supplies being restricted. As one worker put it, 
"the Htoo twins were basically starved out of their hiding places." 

Conditions in the border camps have never been good, a point underlined 
by Sadako Okata, the former United Nations High Commissioner for 
Refugees. In an October visit last year she described the main Tham Hin 
camp as "not up to an acceptable minimum standard for refugees." Supat 
Chitranukroh from the Thai Foreign Ministry retorted that the poor 
conditions might be seen as an effort to discourage refugees from 
staying, pressuring them to return home. 

And that may be the central point. Ratchaburi has the potential to be 
developed into a major trade route between Thailand and Burma, given its 
proximity to Bangkok. There is also a Burmese natural-gas pipeline that 
runs from the Gulf of Martaban into Thailand near the town. Further, 
there is talk of extending the cross-border road down to the gulf and to 
develop a deep-sea port at nearby Tavoy that would serve both countries. 


Bangkok-based Western diplomats note that the Karen rebels across the 
border, and even the refugees on the Thai side, are simply in the way of 
the grandiose development schemes. The enigmatic God's Army had to be 
the first to go. 

And the Htoo twins? As anthropologist Theodore Stern noted, many Karens 
believe in a "divinely sent deliverer" whenever times are hard. This was 
the origin of the myth surrounding Johnny and Luther, who could make 
themselves invisible and were impenetrable by bullets. 

However, Western missionaries also say the Karens accept this kind of 
prophet as easily as they turn away from them once their powers have 
waned. Now the child warriors have become merely pawns in a game being 
played out way above their heads. 








 







___________________________________________________



The Independent (Bangladesh): Yangon Embassy Says: Date for Joint Survey 
of Dam to Be Finalized 


January 24, 2001, Wednesday 




Myanmar Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Bangladesh embassy in Yangon 
have been working out a mutual date for a joint survey of the 
controversial dam site in the Naf river, the Myanmar embassy here said 
yesterday. 

The embassy's counsellor told The Independent that a date for the joint 
survey would be finalized soon. 

The counsellor said that Myanmar Deputy Foreign Minister U Khin Maung 
had telephonic conversations with the mission here over the issues on 
Monday. 

He confirmed the reports that their Deputy Foreign Minister recently 
briefed the heads of the diplomatic missions in Yangon about the border 
developments. 

The Myanmar diplomat denied the allegation of massing troops along 
border with Bangladesh. 

Describing the ties between Dhaka and Yangon as "good" he said that 
their embassy here was working with the Bangladesh government in a 
friendly spirit. 








___________________________________________________



AP: US welcomes release of senior Myanmar opposition leader 

WASHINGTON, Jan 25 (AFP) - The United States on Thursday welcomed the 
release of a senior Myanmar opposition leader and 19 activists, but 
called on the Yangon junta to release all of its political prisoners. 

 National League for Democracy (NLD) vice-chairman Tin Oo was taken late 
Wednesday from the military base outside Yangon where he had been held 
for four months and returned to his home in the capital, NLD sources 
said. 

 "We welcome the the release from detention of U (honorific) Tin Oo and 
other National League for Democracy members," said State Department 
spokesman Richard Boucher. 

 "We'd urge the Burmese government once again to lift the remaining 
restrictions on U Tin Oo and to release all political prisoners that are 
still on detention or under house arrest," he said. 

 Opposition sources say the political atmosphere in Myanmar has improved 
significantly since the United Nations announced that a senior general 
had held face-to-face talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. 

 The talks appear to be paving the way for a landmark dialogue between 
the two sides. 

 Aung San Suu Kyi and party chairman Aung Shwe remain under house arrest 
after they and Tin Oo attempted to travel to the northern city of 
Mandalay in September, in defiance of a travel ban. 

 




___________________________________________________



_______________ ECONOMY AND BUSINESS _______________



  
Reinsurance Magazine: Political Risk; Playing with Fire 


February 1, 2001 



Daniel Wagner, Aig'S Regional Manager For South-East Asia Political 
Risks, Based In Singapore. 




The Asian economic crisis has led to a severe drop in business 
confidence in the region, along with a growing demand for political risk 
insurance, says Daniel Wagner. 

Last September The Economist magazine ranked the world's most unstable 
countries, based on political and economic stability, debt structure and 
regulatory policies. Three of the top five countries were in Asia, with 
Myanmar, Pakistan and Indonesia taking the first, third and fifth spots 
respectively. Ahead of Pakistan and Indonesia were Zimbabwe and Russia 
respectively. 

That three of the top five were in Asia speaks volumes about Asia's 
problem. 

All the countries have a high degree of perceived political risk. 
Whether the risk is really high is irrelevant, as the perception alone 
is a problem. 

In our interdependent, one market-orientated world, countries with high 
degrees of perceived political risk have a tough time attracting foreign 
investment and staying afloat economically. 



Declining investment 

Statistics produced by the Association of South-east Asian Nations 
(Asean) paint a grim picture. Between 1995 and 1999 Asean's share of 
global foreign direct investment declined from 20% to just 11%. 

Ironically, Asean's share of the pie was declining even before the 1997 
crisis hit and therefore before it was perceived to be a political risk 
problem. One reason may be that other areas of the world, such as Latin 
America, became equally or more attractive places in which to invest. 

A more level playing field materialised for investors by the mid-1990s 
as a result of the global embrace of democracy and increased competition 
for investors' resources. In this increasingly competitive environment, 
governments began to realise that investors do not necessarily knock on 
their door without inducement. 

Also, after the Asia crisis, investors discovered that they could invest 
in other parts of the world with fewer perceived risks, thereby 
enhancing their anticipated returns. 

Since 1997, with the exception of the purchase of distressed assets in 
places like Japan and South Korea, investors have generally been 
hesitant to commit large sums of new capital to the region. Now that 
investors perceive the area to be a problem, it has proved difficult to 
lure them back. 

That is likely to continue. In October 2000, the Asian Development Bank 
predicted that inflows of portfolio investment in Asia are likely to 
decline by as much as 75% in 2001, falling from $13.2 to $3.3bn. 

One of the best ways to gauge the health of an economy or a region is to 
look at the state of its stock markets and currencies. The picture in 
Asia is not pretty. 

Comparing the end of the year 2000 with the end of the year 1999 for 10 
of Asia's stock markets is sobering (Figure 1). All the indices were 
down. Leading the pack was Seoul (down 46%), followed by Bangkok (down 
43%), Jakarta (down 38%) and Manila (down 35%). Clearly, investors have 
been pulling out a lot of money from these markets. 

A similar story can be told for Asia's currencies (Figure 2). Again, all 
10 countries in the sample were down over the past 12 months, led by 
Indonesia (down 25%), followed by the Philippines (down 19%), New 
Zealand (down 19%), and Australia (down 17%). 

When the carnage is this deep and widespread, it is evidence of a 
region-wide phenomenon, an indication that there are fundamental 
weaknesses in economies across the board. Much of this stems from a 
crisis of confidence - traders and investors have lost confidence that 
Asia will find its footing in the foreseeable future. There are a number 
of reasons for this. 

Firstly, commodity prices continue to be depressed. Some commodities, 
such as palm oil and coffee, are down nearly 60% in three years. With so 
many Asian economies dependent on the export of commodities as their 
primary source of foreign exchange, the inability to earn sufficient 
hard currency from these raw materials puts significant pressure on 
their own currencies. 

Secondly, with oil prices at 10-year highs, most of Asia's economies are 
having to devote a larger percentage of their scarce foreign exchange to 
the importation of oil. 

Asia's oil consumption has increased by nearly 60% since 1990, resulting 
in more countries importing refined petroleum, including net oil 
exporters that include Malaysia and Indonesia. It is even estimated that 
China, which currently imports only about 4% of its oil, will nearly 
triple its importation of oil by 2020 to about 11%. High oil prices can 
only have a negative impact on most of the region's economies. 

All this is having a cumulatively negative impact on the people of the 
region. Unemployment and poverty are generally rising in a stark 
reversal of decades of progress in countries like Indonesia. These 
problems are also fuelling a rise in political extremism. There has been 
a dramatic increase in separatist movements, kidnappings and religious 
extremism that not only threatens the well-being of the people of the 
region, but has an impact on the investment climate. 

In short, the combination of depressed commodity prices, high oil prices 
and lagging social indicators is creating a regional investment 
environment that is unattractive to foreign investors. 



Victims of complacency 

Last year, when it appeared that most of the region's economies were 
well on the road to recovery, the region's governments became somewhat 
complacent about the reform process. Many of these governments had done 
an inadequate job of addressing corporate and governmental reform to 
begin with. Few had made the hard decisions needed to break the bonds 
big business had with governments and few had been bold enough to allow 
failing companies to fail. 

Instead, many injected more state cash into these companies, thereby 
prolonging the inevitable. Indeed, it now seems clear that many 
governments in the region declared their countries 'cured' prematurely. 
When what was needed was decisive, firm action, what was often delivered 
were political compromises that have deepened the structural malaise. 

As a result, the Asia crisis is far from over. The region is unlikely to 
truly begin recovering until its governments embrace meaningful reform 
on a governmental and corporate level. 

The consequences of inaction will take their toll on the people of the 
region, and foreign traders and investors are likely to continue to lack 
the confidence to return in numbers sufficient to make a difference to 
regional economies. 



Raised risk awareness 

The result of all this is that there appears to be a greater awareness 
on the part of traders and investors doing business in Asia about both 
the existence of political risk insurance (PRI) and how it can be used 
as a risk management tool. 

The business community in Europe and North America has long sought out 
PRI when conducting business in Asia. However, a growing numbers of 
local businesses are becoming accustomed to seeking PRI for regional 
transactions. 

This has much to do with the increasing hesitancy to rely on a handshake 
or a government-to-government agreement (as was common before the 
crisis) to ensure the successful completion of cross-border transactions 
in post-crisis Asia. The Reagan-era adage 'trust, but verify' seems to 
apply, after many regional businesses endured substantial pain from 
failed business ventures in the period immediately following the crisis. 




Cautious investors 

Since 1997 equity investors have in large part become hesitant about 
committing new funds to projects. Many of the region's banks have 
adopted conservative lending policies as a result of the crisis and are 
treading cautiously when considering the commitment of new funds to 
trade and investment transactions. 

Two trends have compounded the impact of the crisis on banks. Firstly, 
there is the absence of a steady flow of transactions that banks can 
feel good about. 

In the early and mid-1990s, when times were good, many banks jumped on 
to the infrastructure bandwagon, providing loans for dozens of toll 
roads, power and water projects. Many of these projects encountered 
problems servicing their debt and, as a result, most banks have 
tightened their lending procedures. 

Secondly, not only do banks fund fewer long-term infrastructure projects 
than before, but these projects must be of a particularly high quality 
to generate their interest. Although profit margins for infrastructure 
projects in Asia have actually increased for banks since 1997 (due to 
the reduction in funds available for lending), there is generally 
greater competition for the high-quality projects among financial 
institutions. 

For other types of lending, profit margins have been eroded. Whereas 
previously a bank may have commonly factored in profit margins of 
150-250 basis points (or higher) when determining its lending rates for 
medium-term loans, it is now common for banks to work with margins of 
100 basis points or fewer. 

These new trends have narrowed the range of options that banks will 
consider when addressing risk management issues, in an effort to remain 
competitive. 

When considering whether to include PRI in a transaction, for instance, 
banks may be forced to choose between protection and profit. Many banks 
will therefore lend without coverage, taking their chances on the 
political risk question rather than cutting into the margin. 

For political risk insurers, the fallout from the Asian crisis has also 
been pronounced. A number of significant claims appeared as a result of 
insuring some of the same infrastructure transactions that created 
trouble for the banks. The most significant of these was a $290m claim 
that occurred in 1998 and had an impact on a number of carriers. 

For a small industry with a low level of premiums generated in a given 
year - compared with mainstream lines of insurance - these types of 
claims can have a considerable impact. 

Fortunately, even at the height of the crisis only some of the pending 
claims materialised. Many of the investment disputes that arose were 
resolved through diligent effort on the part of project sponsors and 
insurers. 

Still, enough damage was done to cause underwriters to adopt an 
underwriting philosophy similar to that of the post-crisis banks. 

Yet, although now more conservative in their approach, there are few 
countries in which underwriters will not even consider reviewing trade 
and investment transactions. The issue is one of aggregation of 
exposure. 

Investors, traders and lenders seem to be focused on the same countries 
as sources of concern over political risk-related issues. This presents 
a challenge for underwriters, who naturally want to limit the amount of 
exposure in any one country. 

The playing field for political risk insurers has become crowded, by the 
industry's standards. The arrival of new players since 1996 has made the 
PRI business more competitive than ever at a time when the insurance 
market is soft. PRI providers therefore find themselves in the same boat 
as banks, dealing with smaller margins and chasing fewer desirable 
deals. 

This environment is favourable for buyers of PRI, but means that 
underwriters face the dual challenge of accepting business that makes 
sense while generating premiums that justify the risk assumed. 



Continuing challenge 

The bottom line is that Asia is not yet out of the woods. Banks will 
continue to search for transactions that make sense while yielding an 
adequate margin to justify participating in loan syndications and 
political risk insurers will continue to provide coverage for 
transactions that fit their risk profile and include a sufficient 
risk-to-premium reward. 

The challenge for businesses seeking loans and insurance for their trade 
and investment transactions will be to obtain financing at an affordable 
level while adding a suitable level of protection. 

Asian governments will continue to face difficult choices concerning 
reform. This may translate into unpopular decisions, but in 
consideration of the long-term well-being of each country, its people, 
its businesses and the region in general, these decisions must be made. 
Ultimately, it will yield the perception among the international 
business community that Asia is a safer place to do business. 



___________________________________________________




 


The Economist: Good fellers


January 27, 2001


LOGGING in South-East Asia is often a criminal affair. Illegal fellers 
have denuded much of Indonesia, and Myanmar's army, using slaves, is 
fast cutting down that country's tropical trees. In Cambodia and Laos, 
both rebels and soldiers have been felling trees for years, leaving land 
bare and vulnerable to erosion and flooding. In Vietnam, where the 
timber industry appears to be better controlled, illegal loggers 
nevertheless still flourish. And Thai monks have become so desperate to 
protect their country's few surviving trees that they wrap saffron robes 
on the trunks as a blessing. 

Malaysia has long promoted itself as the big exception in the region. 
The government talks of "sustainable logging": chopping down only as 
many trees as can be felled without endangering the survival of its 
forests. Timber and furniture industries provide jobs, tax revenue and, 
for loggers, political influence. Last year the country produced 22m 
cubic metres of sawn logs, earning M$1.7 billion ($450m) from exports. 
It sells more tropical logs and sawn tropical timber abroad than any 
other country, and is one of the biggest exporters of hardwood. Domestic 
demand for wood, especially furniture, grew by 12% last year. 

Yet all this means an annual net loss of perhaps 400,000 hectares (1,560 
square miles) of trees, between 1% and 2% of Malaysia's forest cover, 
says the Food and Agriculture Organisation, though it admits exact 
measurements are hard to get. Even though a third of the country is 
covered by virgin or planted forest, the rate of felling is high--and 
not in the long term sustainable. Worse, in the eyes of western 
campaigners, Malaysia has refused to adopt international standards on 
managing forests. Greedy loggers in Malaysia are accused of ignoring the 
interests of indigenous people who live in the forests. In Sarawak, one 
of the largest timber-producing states, activists say locals have been 
displaced or even killed by loggers. 

Forest nomads are losing their way of life, fish stocks have dwindled as 
topsoil has been washed into rivers, and wood is denied to those who 
want to build houses and boats, says Forests Monitor, an environmental 
group. It also says profits from timber help to fuel corruption as 
loggers help to finance local ruling parties, which in turn allocate 
areas to be felled. "Sarawak is a flashpoint of bad forest practice," 
says another observer of the timber industry. 

Now, however, the national government seems ready to adopt standards set 
by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). These are used, mainly in 
Europe, Latin America and North America, to certify that timber comes 
from well-managed forests. In December the government and 200 
representatives of indigenous and other groups agreed that the whole 
industry should be certified. That means giving a voice to local 
communities and ensuring that trees are planted as well as felled. 
Activists who came from Sarawak said they were surprised even to be 
allowed to attend the meeting (in the past their passports have been 
snatched and lawyers forbidden to meet them), let alone to reach an 
agreement. 

So why has Malaysia's prickly prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, ever a 
proud opponent of western values, agreed to a scheme devised by green 
groups such as the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), and the Tropical 
Forest Trust, which is financed by European furniture shops? He may have 
realised at last that being green pays well. Malaysia sells much wood in 
China and Japan, where buyers do not care about its history, but the 
most valuable markets are in the West. There, consumers want to believe 
their wood has not come to them at the expense of the environment and 
will pay as much as 50% more for certified stuff. That may mean as much 
as $1,000 for a cubic metre of tropical wood, says Steve Howard of WWF. 

Forests Monitor is still sceptical that Sarawak, which has few trees 
left but large deposits of oil, will ever benefit. But for some 
Malaysian forests, such as one of 100,000 hectares in Sabah, which have 
already met FSC-standards, lucrative sales should be pending. Other 
states, take note. 




______________OPINION/EDITORIALS_________________



USG: State Department reaction to release of U Tin Oo

Jan. 25, 2001

Transcript of remarks by State Dept. Spokesman



MR. BOUCHER: We welcome the release from detention of Oo Tin Oo and 
other National League for Democracy members. We hope it's another step 
forward in the process of dialogue that was initiated earlier this 
month. Although Oo Tin Oo was allowed to return home, he's apparently 
still prohibited from receiving visitors. We therefore don't really have 
any information about his physical condition. 

Finally, we'd urge the Burmese government once again to release -- to 
lift the remaining restrictions on Oo Tin Oo and to release all 
political prisoners that are still in detention or under house arrest.  

Q Were you able to make a more thorough assessment of the sincerity of 
the dialogue with the opposition in Burma? 

MR. BOUCHER: Not at this point, no. 

Q Has there been contact with the Burmese on this? We have an embassy 
there, right? 

MR. BOUCHER: Yeah. We have an embassy there headed by the charge.  

Q And you can't answer the question of whether there has been probing on 
the part of the embassy there to find out how sincere they are?  

MR. BOUCHER: I don't think I have an answer on it. I think it's too 
early to say whether -- as we said, it should be a genuine dialogue. I 
think it's too early for us to try to evaluate and say yes or no it is.

______________________OTHER______________________

PD Burma: Calendar of events with regard to Burma 

Jan. 26, 2001


Published by PD Burma. 

   
 

 

¨Z January 29-31st  : The EU troika to visit Burma 
 

¨Z  February 5-6th : Meeting of Solidarity Groups, Brussels  
 

¨Z February 6th : James Mawdsley to address the European Parliament, 
Brussels 
 

¨Z February 15th : Conference on Burma, Stockholm. 
 Oluf Palme International Center Swedish NGO Foundation for Human Rights 

 

¨Z February 15-16th  : Burma Donor Meeting, Sweden  
 

¨Z March 8th : Next session of the Governing Body of the ILO 
  Forced labour in Burma to be discussed

 

¨Z April  : EU Common Position Review 
 

¨Z April  : Inter-Parliamentary Conference, Cuba 
 

¨Z March/April : UN Human Rights Commission, Geneva 
 

¨Z May 13-20th : UN LDC III, UN conference on the LDC-countries, 
Brussels 
 

¨Z May 27th : 11th Anniversary of the 1990 elected.  
 

¨Z May  : ARF Senior Official Meeting, Hanoi  
 

¨Z June  : Meeting in the Governing Body of the ILO 
 

¨Z June 19th : Aung San Suu Kyi birthday party and Burmese Women's Day 
 

¨Z July : Belgium takes over EU Presidency 
 

¨Z July : 8th RFA Ministerial Meeting, Hanoi  
 

¨Z July : 34th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and Post-Ministerial Conference 
 
 

¨Z July : ASEAN Summit

 

¨Z Aug. 31st- Sep.7th  : World Conference against Racism and Racial 
Discrimination, Xenophobia  and related intolerance, South Africa  
 

¨Z December 1st  : Worlds Aids Day

 

¨Z December 10th : 10th Year Anniversary of the Nobel Peace Prize for 
Aung San Suu Kyi,  



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