Mizzima: After confidence building,

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                After confidence building, what is next?

By Win Htein, July 20, 2001
Mizzima News Group (www.mizzima.com)

 As a growing sign of having reached an ?understanding? between the
opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) out of the nine-month old ?secret talks?, the
Burmese junta announced last weekend that all elected Members of
Parliament were released from the so-called government guest houses.

A senior official of the NLD welcomed the recent political moves as a
sign of hope for future. ?This probably shows that the two sides have
reached a step towards confidence-building process (between the NLD and
the junta). But 37 MPs and hundreds of our members and supporters are
still being detained in jail".

The UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has welcomed these moves as positive
signs, saying, "There is no alternative, except dialogue", while
Australia, Japan and Britain recognize the junta's new moves.

According to reliable sources, there are five stages to
release political prisoners as an ?agreement? between Lt.-Gen. Khin
Nyunt and Aung San Suu Kyi. The release of all MPs from the guest houses
is the first step. The second is to release sick and aging prisoners who
are over 60-years. The third is to release those whose prison terms are
already served but remain detained and the fourth is to release
security-case prisoners while the last is to release all.

Meanwhile, the international human rights groups like Amnesty
International claims that there are still more than 1,800-political
prisoners in Burma's jails.

"We hope the first two steps will be completed by the time UN Special
Envoy Mr Razali is back to Rangoon", the source added.

The Rangoon-based semi-official paper, ?Myanmar Time? have said that Mr.
Razali will be back in Rangoon in late July to talk with both sides.
Many observers believe that it is the time now to start a real dialogue
for political changes in this military-run country.

Meanwhile, the Karen National Union, an ethnic armed group based in
Thai-Burma border issued a statement that ethnic representatives have to
be involved in the present dialogue process. "It is still necessary for
dialogue ... into a tripartite dialogue that will resolve all the basic
political problems."

Razali is believed to have pushed in recent months for the ethnic
minority groups to be drawn into the process. "But he disappointed when
he faced difficulty to find a spokesperson for all ethnic groups,"
pointed
a diplomatic source in Bangkok.

There are three kinds of ethnic groups in Burma: the ethnic political
parties which won in the 1990-elections, the cease-fire groups which
joined with the junta in last decade and the non-cease-fire groups such
as KNU and Shan State Army.

Pado Man Shar, general secretary of the KNU, blames the Burmese generals
for the divisions. "This is due to the SPDC's 'divide and rule' policy
practiced on us. If the junta stops this act, we absolutely believe that
we can stand united with a common view. If the tripartite dialogue takes
place now, we can choose (our representative) anytime", he added.

Analysts say disunity is the problem not only in the ethnic groups but
also in exiled Burmese community.

Some experts on negotiation process say that the current talks is just a
beginning. "The military regime needs to stop all military offensives in
ethnic areas, repression on the NLD members and their supporters before
entering into the dialogue".

But the junta continues its offensives against the ethnic armed groups
and suppression on the NLD and ordinary people although it has recently
released some MPs and allowed to reopen some NLD offices.

Meanwhile, a rumor in Rangoon is widely spreading that Aung San Suu Kyi
did not attend Martyrs' Day ceremony yesterday on 19 July as to show
that the talks is not progressing.

However, most observers believe that the current talks between Brig.
Gen. Kyaw Win (deputy of Khin Nyunt) and Aung San Suu Kyi are still in
good shape. They will start the next round discussion soon.

The UN special envoy Razali is now preparing to be back in Rangoon on
his return from Tokyo. UN human rights Special Rapporteur Paulo Pinheiro
is also expected to be in Burma soon. The ILO's high-level mission will
go to this country in September while the European Union (EU) is sending
their new Troika mission after the ILO?s visit.

Before the foreign missions reach to this ?Golden Land?, the next round
of talks would be started, hopefully!

Win Htein is a correspondent for Democratic Voice of Burma.



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<center><b><font color="#000099"><font size=+2>After confidence building,
what is next?</font></font></b></center>

<p><i><font color="#CC0000"><font size=+1>By Win Htein, July 20, 2001</font></font></i>
<br><i><font color="#CC0000"><font size=+1>Mizzima News Group <a href="http://www.mizzima.com";>(www.mizzima.com)</a></font></font></i>
<p><font size=+1>&nbsp;As a growing sign of having reached an ?understanding?
between the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC) out of the nine-month old ?secret
talks?, the Burmese junta announced last weekend that all elected Members
of Parliament were released from the so-called government guest houses.</font>
<p><font size=+1>A senior official of the NLD welcomed the recent political
moves as a sign of hope for future. ?This probably shows that the two sides
have reached a step towards confidence-building process (between the NLD
and the junta). But 37 MPs and hundreds of our members and supporters are
still being detained in jail".</font>
<p><font size=+1>The UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has welcomed these
moves as positive signs, saying, "There is no alternative, except dialogue",
while Australia, Japan and Britain recognize the junta's new moves.</font>
<p><font size=+1>According to reliable sources, there are five stages to</font>
<br><font size=+1>release political prisoners as an ?agreement? between
Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt and Aung San Suu Kyi. The release of all MPs from the
guest houses is the first step. The second is to release sick and aging
prisoners who are over 60-years. The third is to release those whose prison
terms are already served but remain detained and the fourth is to release
security-case prisoners while the last is to release all.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Meanwhile, the international human rights groups like
Amnesty International claims that there are still more than 1,800-political
prisoners in Burma's jails.</font>
<p><font size=+1>"We hope the first two steps will be completed by the
time UN Special Envoy Mr Razali is back to Rangoon", the source added.</font>
<p><font size=+1>The Rangoon-based semi-official paper, ?Myanmar Time?
have said that Mr. Razali will be back in Rangoon in late July to talk
with both sides. Many observers believe that it is the time now to start
a real dialogue for political changes in this military-run country.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Meanwhile, the Karen National Union, an ethnic armed group
based in Thai-Burma border issued a statement that ethnic representatives
have to be involved in the present dialogue process. "It is still necessary
for dialogue ... into a tripartite dialogue that will resolve all the basic
political problems."</font>
<p><font size=+1>Razali is believed to have pushed in recent months for
the ethnic minority groups to be drawn into the process. "But he disappointed
when he faced difficulty to find a spokesperson for all ethnic groups,"
pointed</font>
<br><font size=+1>a diplomatic source in Bangkok.</font>
<p><font size=+1>There are three kinds of ethnic groups in Burma: the ethnic
political parties which won in the 1990-elections, the cease-fire groups
which joined with the junta in last decade and the non-cease-fire groups
such as KNU and Shan State Army.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Pado Man Shar, general secretary of the KNU, blames the
Burmese generals for the divisions. "This is due to the SPDC's 'divide
and rule' policy practiced on us. If the junta stops this act, we absolutely
believe that we can stand united with a common view. If the tripartite
dialogue takes place now, we can choose (our representative) anytime",
he added.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Analysts say disunity is the problem not only in the ethnic
groups but also in exiled Burmese community.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Some experts on negotiation process say that the current
talks is just a beginning. "The military regime needs to stop all military
offensives in ethnic areas, repression on the NLD members and their supporters
before entering into the dialogue".</font>
<p><font size=+1>But the junta continues its offensives against the ethnic
armed groups and suppression on the NLD and ordinary people although it
has recently released some MPs and allowed to reopen some NLD offices.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Meanwhile, a rumor in Rangoon is widely spreading that
Aung San Suu Kyi did not attend Martyrs' Day ceremony yesterday on 19 July
as to show that the talks is not progressing.</font>
<p><font size=+1>However, most observers believe that the current talks
between Brig. Gen. Kyaw Win (deputy of Khin Nyunt) and Aung San Suu Kyi
are still in good shape. They will start the next round discussion soon.</font>
<p><font size=+1>The UN special envoy Razali is now preparing to be back
in Rangoon on his return from Tokyo. UN human rights Special Rapporteur
Paulo Pinheiro is also expected to be in Burma soon. The ILO's high-level
mission will go to this country in September while the European Union (EU)
is sending their new Troika mission after the ILO?s visit.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Before the foreign missions reach to this ?Golden Land?,
the next round of talks would be started, hopefully!</font>
<p><font size=+1>Win Htein is a correspondent for Democratic Voice of Burma.</font>
<p>&nbsp;</html>

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