From Novelty to Normalcy - Polling in Myanmar?s Democratic Transition

Description: 

Executive Summary: "This report examines the state of opinion research in Myanmar, identifies challenges, and makes recommendations for improvements. Since the government of Myanmar announced a transition from military rule to democracy in 2010, both domestic and international stakeholders have turned to polling to discover public opinion on a range of issues. Polling is critical in transitioning countries. Polls can provide parties with data to understand the needs and desires of the electorate and serve as a check on government excesses. They make information on public views widely available and can represent both the diversity of existing opinions and positions of minority populations. Finally, they show a road to political compromise and prepare parties and the public to deal with election outcomes. The Western public accepts and expects polling on a regular basis, but we did not find that always the case in Myanmar. Although Myanmar has a decades-long history of market surveys, political polling is a relatively new phenomenon. Organizations operating in this field face four major challenges. The first is selecting a sample in a country that lacks reliable census or voter registration data, and lacks comprehensive access to telephones or the internet. The second is how to provide survey questionnaires in several languages to accommodate Myanmar?s numerous ethnic groups. The third challenge relates to interviewers, both to their training and to accounting for possible response bias based on the interaction between the interviewer?s socio-demographic background and the respondent?s. Finally, polling groups and interviewers must ensure respondents? confidentiality. These problems are not unique to Myanmar. Pollsters around the world regularly grapple with similar dilemmas. What makes their task more challenging in Myanmar is the novelty of polling. Few people (even in civil society and political parties) understand its nature, and many are quick to dismiss the whole exercise when they do not like some of a poll?s results. The report examines and refutes several of their criticisms, perhaps the most common being that a sample, no matter how large, cannot capture the full diversity of opinions in a country as large and heterogeneous as Myanmar. It is possible to tackle these misperceptions and improve practices. Our recommendations for immediate actions can be implemented ahead of the parliamentary election this year. They include suggestions on conducting polls, providing frameworks for their interpretation, and training potential users to understand polling data. Long-term change will require consistent attention and investment from polling groups, those who commission them, and users of polling data to strengthen the polling field. Most importantly, polling organizations should continue making their data publicly available. Those who conduct and commission public surveys need to do so on a regular basis. Both practices will teach the public to see polls as a normal element of a democratic process and become another step in Myanmar?s transition to a full-fledged democracy."

Source/publisher: 

Open Society Foundations

Date of Publication: 

2015-03-00

Date of entry: 

2015-05-16

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  • Individual Documents

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Language: 

English

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pdf

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375.9 KB