MYANMAR: THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC REFORM

Description: 

Conclusion: "Along with sweeping political reforms, Myanmar has embarked on an ambitious program of economic changes, aimed at rebuilding its moribund economy and integrating it with the global system. It has begun a managed float of the currency, and is dismantling the old system of monopolies and privileged access to licenses, permits and contracts. These changes will have a big impact on the entrenched economic elite – crony businessmen, the military and former political heavyweights linked to the government party – who will have to compete on a more level playing field and even start paying tax. Given their wealth or political influence, these interests might have been powerful spoilers, but there are no indications that they are attempting to derail the economic reforms. They know which way the winds are blowing and appear to have accepted the inevitability of the changes. They are aware that the political risks of challenging the reforms would outweigh the likely benefits and see that they may be well-positioned to benefit from a vibrant and growing economy, even if their share of it is reduced. To this end, the business elite have embarked on efforts to reposition and rebrand themselves. The military recognises that its sprawling business interests, if they continue to be inefficiently run, could become a drain on its budget rather than a supplement to it. Yet, the path of economic reconstruction will not be smooth or straightforward. To achieve President Thein Sein?s objective of broad-based and equitable growth, well-crafted and effectively implemented policies are also required. With so much to be changed, and limited capacity at both the policy-formulation and policy-implementation levels, there is a risk that the administration will be overwhelmed. Beyond this, success in such an endeavour depends on ensuring macroeconomic and political stability. Unanticipated economic shocks, social unrest or political uncertainty in the lead-up to the next elections in 2015 all represent potential risks to that stability. But if it is able to manage this complex process, Myanmar has the possibility to finally realise its enormous economic potential, catching up with its neighbours while avoiding some of their mistakes."

Source/publisher: 

International Crisis Group (Asia Report N?231)

Date of Publication: 

2012-07-27

Date of entry: 

2012-07-27

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  • Individual Documents

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Language: 

English

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pdf

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