"Transition in Burma may come abruptly - perhaps as a result of a 1988-style peoples? uprising - or more gradually, and with less bloodshed. The latter scenario may involve a power-sharing arrangement between the SPDC and the opposition, or a gradual process of ‘regime reform?, with little direct in-put from the wider society or opposition forces. Although opposition tactics will vary according to the circumstances, a number of strategic considerations remain the same. However and whenever change occurs, members of Burma?s diverse social groups must be ready to act. In general, opposition strategies have focused on elite-level politics, rather than grass-roots democratisation. However, both approaches are necessary - while neither is sufficient in itself. Change at the national level is urgently needed, but sustained democratic transition can only be achieved if accompanied by local participation and ‘development from below?. Among the three parties to any tripartite negotiations in Burma, the ethnic nationalities in particular could benefit from a combination of elite-level, blueprint-type solutions and a grass-roots, participatory approach, aimed at strengthening civil society. Although overseas-based activists and Burma-watchers have sometimes assumed that there is no civil society in the country, this far from true. The re-emergence of local networks within and between ethnic nationality communities over the past decade has been one of the most significant - but under-reported - aspects of the social and political situation in Burma. Efforts to build local democracy are already underway - in government-controlled areas, in some ethnic nationality-populated ceasefire and war zones, and in neighbouring countries. However, these 'bottom-up' initiatives will not bring about substantial change, without accompanying 'top-down', national-level reforms..." This text formed the basis of Ashley South's presentation to the ‘Burma Day 2003: Political and humanitarian options for the international community? conference, Brussels, Wednesday 8 October 2003. A slightly abridged version appeared in two parts, in the Irrawaddy Online, October 16-17.