"WITH FIGHTING in Rakhine State since January and escalating bloodshed in northern Shan State, Myanmar is enduring a level of conflict unprecedented in recent years. This state of affairs has further diminished the already gloomy prospect for any progress in the peace process before the 2020 elections. The peace process, with all its weaknesses and incapacity, may not be completely to blame for the recent fighting. However, the timing, location and specific patterns of the conflicts taking place in recent years require more analysis if a resolution is to be achieved in future. With perhaps some minor exceptions, the most significant armed conflicts in Myanmar since 2011 have taken place between Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, and the four organisations under the Northern Alliance banner: the Kachin Independence Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army. Most of the fighting has taken place in Kachin and Shan states, where there is often an overlap in territory among and between the ethnic armed groups and the Tatmadaw. The military alliance among the four groups is categorically distinct from the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, which is a political organisation and does not automatically and directly carry military commitment to mutual defence – a point that was made clear at the second Panghsang Summit in 2017. The KIA, as the leader of the Northern Alliance, has been engaged in active conflict with the Tatmadaw since June 2011. Its support of the three other organisations is easily understood – to distract and mitigate the military pressure it faces from the Tatmadaw..."