Description:
Executive Summary: "Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid
democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become commonplace
in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been
involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar
remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of
carrying out ?window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable
the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in
maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic
reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese
Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against
blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved
? namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
This Geneva Paper will posit that the current reforms are a means for Myanmar?s
Government to ensure the continuity of military power in a different guise in order
to allow engagement with the international community, rather than a case of democratic
reform for the sake of democratization itself. The reason that the Government
is so keen to engage with foreign governments and companies after years of isolation,
is the incentive of the lifting of all sanctions, as well as a diversification in both
business opportunities and aid following years of sole reliance on China. From a
Western perspective there is widespread enthusiasm for engagement with Myanmar.
This is driven not only by businesses, who are lining up to profit from Myanmar?s
resources, but also by the fact that a market democratic Myanmar would break potential
proliferation links with the Democratic People?s Republic of Korea (DPRK)
and fit geo-strategically with the United States? widely proclaimed Pacific Century.
The paper will start by analysing the election and pre-election period 2008-10
in order to identify to what extent the recent evolution in Myanmar is a form of
virtual politics as opposed to real democratic transition. Virtual politics can be
defined as a way of directing democracy which is a step ahead of electoral fraud.
Virtual politics goes beyond the stuffing of ballot boxes. It is creating the impression
that the framework and mechanisms of a democratic state are in place but in
fact behind the scenes it is the same elite holding the reins of power and directing
what happens within the country.
It will then identify what true democratic change would look like in the context
of Myanmar. To do so it will use relevant key indicators to evaluate whether the
country is on the path to democratic transition or whether there are more virtual
politics at play. The paper will conclude that the situation unfolding within the
country should not be taken at face value and that whilst there are clearly visible
reforms underway these have yet to be institutionalized and legitimized.
Due to the current nature of this subject and the lack of primary sources available,
interviews with a wide range of experts, both inside Myanmar and abroad,
provide the main body of the research. The interviews allow for an in-depth analysis
of the apparent reforms to reach a conclusion upon where real democratic
change is being evidenced and where the Government of Myanmar is shaping
perceptions through its smart use of virtual politics."
Source/publisher:
Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Date of Publication:
2012-08-00
Date of entry:
2015-06-07
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English
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Format:
pdf
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519.94 KB