Sub-title:
This ILO brief is a rapid impact assessment of the impact of the military takeover of 1 February on employment in Myanmar.
Description:
"On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military seized
control of the government, following a general election
in November 2020. Consequently, nationwide political
demonstrations and worker strikes over the military
takeover have been met with violence, intimidation and
harassment by security personnel.
The political crisis has extensively destabilized the
economy and halted an expected economic recovery
from the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Bank, on 26
March, downgraded its 2021 GDP growth forecasts for
Myanmar from 5.9 per cent to a negative rate of –10 per cent, citing such factors as the demonstrations, worker
strikes, and military actions, as well as mobility
restrictions, and the ongoing disruption of key public
services, banking, logistics, and internet services.
1
Likewise, the Asian Development Bank, on 28 April,
projected the economy to contract by 9.8 per cent in
2021.2
In this rapidly evolving context, and due to the lack of
official employment statistics published after the first
quarter 2020, this brief aims to estimate labour market
trends since the military takeover. The rapid impact
assessment includes an estimate of working-hour and
employment losses, and also presents estimates of the
impact on the three hardest hit sectors: construction,
garments, and tourism and hospitality.
The estimation methodology, outlined in the Annex,
extends on previous methodologies used by the ILO to
estimate labour market trends.3
It makes use of robust
empirical relationships established on the basis of
detailed, cross-country sentiment and mobility
indicators. The estimates should nevertheless be
interpreted as indicative and may not fully reflect the
severity of the employment situation..."
Source/publisher:
International Labour Organization
Date of Publication:
2021-07-19
Date of entry:
2021-07-20
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Countries:
Myanmar
Language:
English
Local URL:
Format:
pdf
Size:
585.93 KB
Resource Type:
text
Text quality:
- Good