Employment in Myanmar since the military takeover: A rapid impact assessment

Sub-title: 

This ILO brief is a rapid impact assessment of the impact of the military takeover of 1 February on employment in Myanmar.

Description: 

"On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military seized control of the government, following a general election in November 2020. Consequently, nationwide political demonstrations and worker strikes over the military takeover have been met with violence, intimidation and harassment by security personnel. The political crisis has extensively destabilized the economy and halted an expected economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Bank, on 26 March, downgraded its 2021 GDP growth forecasts for Myanmar from 5.9 per cent to a negative rate of –10 per cent, citing such factors as the demonstrations, worker strikes, and military actions, as well as mobility restrictions, and the ongoing disruption of key public services, banking, logistics, and internet services. 1 Likewise, the Asian Development Bank, on 28 April, projected the economy to contract by 9.8 per cent in 2021.2 In this rapidly evolving context, and due to the lack of official employment statistics published after the first quarter 2020, this brief aims to estimate labour market trends since the military takeover. The rapid impact assessment includes an estimate of working-hour and employment losses, and also presents estimates of the impact on the three hardest hit sectors: construction, garments, and tourism and hospitality. The estimation methodology, outlined in the Annex, extends on previous methodologies used by the ILO to estimate labour market trends.3 It makes use of robust empirical relationships established on the basis of detailed, cross-country sentiment and mobility indicators. The estimates should nevertheless be interpreted as indicative and may not fully reflect the severity of the employment situation..."

Source/publisher: 

International Labour Organization

Date of Publication: 

2021-07-19

Date of entry: 

2021-07-20

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

Category: 

Countries: 

Myanmar

Language: 

English

Local URL: 

Format: 

pdf

Size: 

585.93 KB

Resource Type: 

text

Text quality: 

    • Good